Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Khaleej Saihat 4-2 Al-Hazm.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al Khaleej Saihat, 27% draw, 35% Al-Hazm — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Khaleej Saihat at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49A. MorisG
- 27Fawaz Al SaqourD
- 4K. KouyatéD
- 3Mohammed Al KhabraniD
- 5Pedro RebochoD
- 18Nawaf Al SaadiM
- 19Miguel CrespoM
- 8Omar MascarellM
- 10A. FulginiM
- 7J. KingF
- 99M. BarrowF
- 96Marwan Al HaidariG
- 17Abdullah Al HafithD
- 28Hussain Al EisaF
- 11Saleh Al AmriF
- 90Thamer Al KhaibriF
- 14Ali Al ShaafiD
- 13Ahmad AsiriD
- 15Mansour HamziF
- 12Majed KanabahM
- 36J. StaněkG
- 5Mohammed IssaD
- 4Sultan TankerD
- 3A. Ben HmidaD
- 27Ahmed Al NakhliD
- 17Bonheur MugishaM
- 24A. BahM
- 77M. Al HamdaniM
- 28S. BendebkaM
- 70Ahmed Al ShamraniM
- 9Afimico PululuF
- 21Amadou Bamba DiengF
- 95Jaser AteeqD
- 11Waleed Al ShanqitiF
- 13Abdullah Al ShanqitiD
- 33Majed Al-GhamdiG
- 12Farhan Al-AazmiD
- 88K. AbduljawadF
- 8M. KonatéM
Form going into Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pro League
- L1-4away to Al-Ahli Jeddah23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Fateh18 October 2026
- W2-0Al-Fayha15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Ettifaq10 October 2026
Al-Hazm
Pro League
- D2-2Al-Fayha22 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hilal19 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Fateh15 October 2026
- D1-1NEOM10 October 2026
What these results say
- Al Khaleej Saihat scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Khaleej Saihat conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Al Khaleej Saihat.
- Al-Hazm did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al-Hazm conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hazm
- 6 March 2026Al Khaleej Saihat 2–1 Al-HazmPro League
- 6 November 2025Al-Hazm 1–4 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 24 February 2024Al-Hazm 1–1 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 29 August 2023Al Khaleej Saihat 1–1 Al-HazmPro League
- 22 February 2021Al-Hazm 1–0 Al Khaleej SaihatDivision 1
- 4 November 2020Al Khaleej Saihat 2–4 Al-HazmDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hazm
Al Khaleej Saihat
GoalsAssists
- J. King50
Al-Hazm
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Hazm 4–2. The model had made a win for Al Khaleej Saihat its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Musa Barrow 24' for Al Khaleej Saihat, Sofiane Bendebka 39' for Al-Hazm, Afimico Pululu 45' for Al-Hazm, Boubakar Kouyate 47' for Al Khaleej Saihat, Joshua King 73' for Al Khaleej Saihat, Musa Barrow 75' for Al Khaleej Saihat. On expected goals it finished 3.31–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Khaleej Saihat a 12.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.4% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 16.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.
For Al-Hazm the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.7% going in: 7.0% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.3%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Al Khaleej Saihat's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Al Khaleej Saihat win38%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Al-Hazm win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.