Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Riyadh 0-6 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 14% Al Riyadh, 18% draw, 68% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 7.14, 5.56 and 1.47.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 82M. BorjanG
- 79F. Al JayzaniD
- 5Hossam MajrashiD
- 26R. AbascalD
- 23Hussain QasimD
- 32Awad DahalM
- 6K. KeitaM
- 22V. LekhalM
- 43B. MensahM
- 10T. OkouF
- 7TrézéguetF
- 3Y. M. Al MusaD
- 2Sultan AlessaD
- 11H. Al AliF
- 19A. M. Al HarthiM
- 16Faisal Al SobhiM
- 14Essam BahriD
- 12Sulaiman HazaziD
- 28J. PetekG
- 13Osama Al BowardiD
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 33J. QuiñonesF
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 7Turki Al AmmarM
- 46Abdulaziz Al ElewaiF
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
- 35A. Al SiyahiM
- 27E. HoussaM
- 30M. SangareF
- 70S. SuleimanF
Form going into Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Riyadh
Pro League
- W2-1Al Taawon24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Diriyah20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League
- L2-3Al-Hilal23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Al Taawon20 October 2026
- W2-1Abha16 October 2026
- W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026
What these results say
- Al Riyadh scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Riyadh conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al Riyadh had two goals or fewer.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al-Qadisiyah FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 29 April 2026Al Riyadh 0–4 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 4 January 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 4–0 Al RiyadhPro League
- 2 March 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–0 Al RiyadhPro League
- 4 October 2024Al Riyadh 2–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 28 February 2023Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCDivision 1
- 4 October 2022Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al RiyadhDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Riyadh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders83
- M. Retegui72
- J. Quiñones65
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Qadisiyah FC won 6–0 at Al Riyadh. The model had made a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tijjani Reijnders 18' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Abdullah Al-Salem 37' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Tijjani Reijnders 56' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Mahamadou Sangaré 67' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Julián Quiñones 87' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Tijjani Reijnders 89' for Al-Qadisiyah FC. On expected goals it finished 1.37–5.13.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Riyadh a 21.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.1% after a win, 18.9% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.0%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For Al-Qadisiyah FC the question was the chance to win the league, 14.4% going in: 15.5% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.5%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FC has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 12% / 17% / 71% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 14% / 18% / 68%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al Riyadh win14%▲ +2
- Draw18%▲ +1
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win68%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.