Abha vs Al-Ittihad Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Abha 1-1 Al-Ittihad.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% Abha, 25% draw, 57% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ittihad at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Abha vs Al-Ittihad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16D. LéonG
- 23Mohammed Al DossaryD
- 3J. GaariD
- 19Abdullah Al FahadD
- 39M. Al-ZaidD
- 11A. GoryM
- 32L. RosierM
- 7Firas Al-GhamdiM
- 17Abdulkarim DarisiM
- 8Nasser Al-DaajaniM
- 20Koshaim Al KaraniF
- 80Safwan SaudD
- 6Faisal Al SubianiM
- 28Bader Al MutairiM
- 21Abdulrahman Al BouqG
- 90Amar Al YuhaybiM
- 55M. BorrellM
- 9Kamil BoumedmedF
- 29Majed DawranM
- 37Abdulbasit Al-HindiD
- 1P. RajkovićG
- 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
- 6Saad Al MosaD
- 2Danilo PereiraD
- 25F. AbdiD
- 5R. RiosM
- 8Mukhtar AliM
- 23G. WijnaldumM
- 10H. AouarM
- 34S. BergwijnM
- 21Y. En-NesyriF
- 27Ahmed Al GhamdiF
- 38Suhaib Al HawsawiF
- 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
- 22Marwan Al SahafiF
- 66Mohammed BarnawiD
- 42Muath FaqeehiD
- 41Mohammed FallatahM
- 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
- 9G. IlenikhenaF
Form going into Abha vs Al-Ittihad
Abha
Pro League
- L0-1Al-Faisaly FC27 October 2026
- L0-2away to NEOM24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
Al-Ittihad
Pro League
- W2-0Al Diriyah23 October 2026
- W4-1away to Al-Ettifaq20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Hilal10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
What these results say
- Abha did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Abha failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Abha conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ittihad scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ittihad won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ittihad conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Abha vs Al-Ittihad
- 3 May 2024Abha 3–1 Al-IttihadPro League
- 10 November 2023Al-Ittihad 4–2 AbhaPro League
- 8 May 2023Al-Ittihad 4–0 AbhaPro League
- 31 December 2022Abha 1–2 Al-IttihadPro League
- 6 February 2022Abha 0–4 Al-IttihadPro League
- 11 September 2021Al-Ittihad 6–1 AbhaPro League
Leading scorers: Abha and Al-Ittihad
Abha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- Y. En-Nesyri70
- G. Ilenikhena63
- S. Bergwijn51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Abha and Al-Ittihad drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Ittihad at 57% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Houssem Aouar 52' for Al-Ittihad, Faisal Al-Subiani 87' for Abha. On expected goals it finished 0.76–1.38.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Abha a 74.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 64.0% after a win, 72.4% after a draw, 77.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 72.4%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
For Al-Ittihad the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 48.2% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 39.0%.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Abha v Al-Ittihad has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 24% / 25% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 18% / 25% / 57%: the biggest move is Abha's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Abha win18%▼ −6
- Draw25%=
- Al-Ittihad win57%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.