16 October 2026, 13:15 UTC

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha Pro League prediction & result

Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Dammam
Referee: Abdullah Al-Kharbosh
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Abha.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 16% draw, 10% Abha — fair odds of 1.35, 6.25 and 10.00.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 74%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Qadisiyah FC99%Draw1%Abha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mateo Retegui (pen)
5'
Julian Weigl
7'
🔁Ali Badra Diabatéout: Yasir Al-Shahrani
28'
⚽Mateo Reteguiassist: Tijjani Reijnders
30'
54'
Nabil Fekir
59'
🔁Khaled Al Shamraniout: Safwan Al Johani
59'
🔁Nabil Fekirout: Nasser Al Daajani
⚽Mohammed Abu Al-Shamatassist: Mateo Retegui
69'
🔁Musab Al-Juwayrout: Abdullah Al-Salem
70'
🔁Christopher Bonsu Baahout: Turki Al-Ammar
70'
76'
🔁Georges-Kévin N'Koudouout: Alimani Gory
77'
🔁Mohammed Al-Dosariout: Amar Al-Yuhaybi
82'
🔁Firas Al-Ghamdiout: Bader Al Mutairi
🔁Mateo Reteguiout: Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani
84'
🔁Nahitan Nándezout: Eyad Housa
85'
Turki Al-Ammar
86'
90+5'
⚽Alimani Goryassist: Safwan Al Johani

Match stats — Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha

66%Possession34%
8Shots6
4On target1
4Corners3
1.73xG0.34

Goals against chances

Al-Qadisiyah FC2 from 1.73 xGabout what the chances were worth
Abha1 from 0.34 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-5-2
  • 1K. CasteelsG
  • 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
  • 17G. ÁlvarezD
  • 26Badra Diabbate AliD
  • 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
  • 8N. NándezM
  • 5J. WeiglM
  • 14T. ReijndersM
  • 22C. Bonsu BaahM
  • 32M. ReteguiF
  • 10Musab Al JuwayrF
Substitutes
  • 27E. HoussaM
  • 42Abdulaziz Al ElewaiF
  • 7Turki Al AmmarM
  • 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
  • 28Ahmed Al KassarG
  • 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
  • 9Abdullah Al SalemF
  • 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
  • 35A. Al SiyahiM
Coach: Brendan Rodgers
Abha 5-4-1
  • 21A. Al BouqG
  • 23Mohammed Al DossaryD
  • 3J. GaariD
  • 19Abdullah Al FahadD
  • 37Abdulbasit Al-HindiD
  • 12K. Al ShamraniD
  • 17Abdulkarim DarisiM
  • 10N. FekirM
  • 7Firas Al-GhamdiM
  • 14G. NkoudouM
  • 44M. BatshuayiF
Substitutes
  • 28Bader Al MutairiM
  • 20K. Al QahtaniF
  • 6Faisal Al SubianiM
  • 90Amar Al YuhaybiM
  • 9Kamil BoumedmedF
  • 11A. GoryF
  • 26Mustafa MalayekahG
  • 8Nasser Al DaajaniM
  • 80Safwan SaudD
Coach: D. Burić

Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha

Al-Qadisiyah FC

Pro League

  • W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026

Abha

Pro League

  • D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Al-Qadisiyah FC129123212+2028
18Abha11038719-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha

  • 30 May 2021Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 AbhaPro League
  • 24 January 2021Abha 2–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha

Al-Qadisiyah FC

GoalsAssists

  • T. Reijnders83
  • M. Retegui72
  • J. Quiñones65

Abha

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Abha 2–1. The model had made a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC its most likely outcome, at 74%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Mateo Retegui 30' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat 69' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Alimani Gory 90+5' for Abha. On expected goals it finished 1.73–0.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Qadisiyah FC a 19.6% chance to win the league: 20.8% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.8%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Abha the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 56.3% going in: 42.8% after a win, 51.7% after a draw, 58.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.4%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 64% / 21% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 74% / 16% / 10%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Al-Qadisiyah FC win74%▲ +10
  2. Draw16%▼ −5
  3. Abha win10%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.