Sumqayıt vs Araz Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Sumqayıt 2-1 Araz.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Sumqayıt, 22% draw, 22% Araz — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sumqayıt at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 16M. Johansson
- 17N. Ahmadzada
- 10R. Vasquez
- 80Keffel
- 29E. Mustafaev
- 42C. Badolo
- 4E. Suliman
- 5Renan Santana
- 55Lucas Black
- 21Tiago Almeida
- 11M. Bangre
- 22K. Farzullayev
- 12A. Arikhov
- 20A. Suleymali
- 37N. Orucali
- 75N. Orucov
- 97V. Pashayev
- 27I. Barker
- 19R. Kehat
- 23R. Ahmadov
- 99T. Ahmadli
- 17I. Paro
- 10C. Boli
- 6P. Andrade
- 8M. Ahmadzada
- 5L. Dumancic
- 11M. Mara
- 23A. Fernandez
- 36M. Kane
- 27B. Letic
- 9A. Salyanskiy
- 1A. Augusto
- 14U. Isgandarov
- 26O. Buludov
- 12Bruno Franco
- 7R. Muradov
- 29C. Nuriyev
- 21I. Piriyev
- 19A. Sudi
- 13Q. Alizada
Form going into Sumqayıt vs Araz
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa
- W4-1Qabala10 October 2026
Araz
Premyer Liqa
- L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sumqayıt | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Araz | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sumqayıt vs Araz
- 9 May 2026Sumqayıt 2–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 15 February 2026Araz 1–0 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 2 November 2025Sumqayıt 3–2 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 7 April 2025Araz 2–0 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 1 February 2025Sumqayıt 0–0 ArazPremyer Liqa
The result against the call
Sumqayıt beat Araz 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sumqayıt at 56%. The goals: A. Fernandez 32' for Araz, R. Vasquez 62' for Sumqayıt, N. Ahmadzada 82' for Sumqayıt. Sent off: A. Salyanskiy (Araz) 85'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sumqayıt a 16.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.2% after a win, 19.1% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
For Araz the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 63.1% going in: 52.7% after a win, 61.0% after a draw, 67.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.8%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sumqayıt v Araz has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 56% / 22% / 22%: the biggest move is Sumqayıt's chance of winning, up 12 points.
- Sumqayıt win56%▲ +12
- Draw22%▼ −5
- Araz win22%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.