16 October 2026, 13:05 UTC

Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United Pro League prediction & result

Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Madinat Zayed
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Al-Dhafra 5-1 Dubai United.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Al-Dhafra, 23% draw, 52% Dubai United — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dubai United at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Dhafra99%Draw1%Dubai United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
Othman Ramadan
•Sory Kaba
33'
⚽Dominique Mendy (pen)
33'
38'
•A. Karimi
40'
⚽Willy Semedo (pen)
⚽Sory Kabaassist: Samir De Souza
41'
45'
🔁Hussain Abbas Jumaout: Pape Guèye
45'
🔁Moustapha Nameout: Mahmoud Dahoud
⚽Sory Kabaassist: Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed Alhammadi
48'
Ezeckiel Noumonvi
56'
56'
🔁Jonas Naafoout: Haris Seferović
🔁Khaled Bawazirout: Marcelinho
62'
⚽Daraman Komariassist: Sory Kaba
68'
72'
🔁Willy Semedoout: Cedrick Steve Nana Djeunou
🔁Sory Kabaout: Karim El Berkaoui
82'
🔁Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed Alhammadiout: Arielson Sampaio·Galvao
82'
⚽Arielson Sampaio·Galvaoassist: Ezeckiel Noumonvi
90+1'
🔁Ezeckiel Noumonviout: Vinicius Lima Serafim
90+4'
🔁Mohamed El Khalouiout: Adem Ben Fajria
90+4'

Match stats — Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United

28%Possession72%
11Shots20
8On target8
3Corners10
2.39xG2.42

Goals against chances

Al-Dhafra5 from 2.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dubai United1 from 2.42 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Dhafra 4-4-2
  • 44A. Al SayedG
  • 15Abdullah Al KarbiD
  • 3D. KoumareD
  • 33SamirD
  • 6E. NoumonviD
  • 16M. AlhammadiM
  • 88D. MendyM
  • 21R. DjoohM
  • 11M. El KhalouiM
  • 14Khalid BawazirF
  • 9S. KabaF
Substitutes
  • 7MarcelinhoF
  • 8Z. MohammedM
  • 20L. AmesimekuD
  • 22Rayan YaslamM
  • 1Mazin Saleh ZayidG
  • 5Mansor Al HarbiM
  • 17Eisa HoutiG
  • 77A. Ben FajriaD
  • 95Karim El BerkaouiF
Coach: P. Carteron
Dubai United 4-1-4-1
  • 26S. LekovićG
  • 19Hamid YahyaD
  • 15A. PuricD
  • 3O. JamalD
  • 52Hussain AbbasD
  • 25M. NameM
  • 80S. BabickaM
  • 5A. KarimiM
  • 23Jonas NaafoM
  • 10Willy SemedoM
  • 49E. MaouhoubF
Substitutes
  • 81M. DahoudM
  • 88Habib Al FardanM
  • 22Mohammed Yousuf GhulamM
  • 7Pape GuèyeF
  • 8Baidi DiakiteM
  • 6Majid SurourD
  • 29C. NanaD
  • 13Inayat NoorG
  • 9H. SeferovićF
Coach: A. Pirlo

Form going into Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United

Al-Dhafra

Pro League

  • W2-1away to Hatta SC11 September 2026
  • L0-1Al Wahda FC6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Khorfakkan29 August 2026

Dubai United

Pro League

  • D1-1Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Sharjah FC5 September 2026
  • W4-1Al-Ittihad Kalba28 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

United Arab Emirates Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Al-Dhafra7205913-46
11Dubai United72141422-87

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United

  • 10 May 2025Al-Dhafra 2–1 Dubai UnitedDivision 1
  • 11 January 2025Dubai United 3–0 Al-DhafraDivision 1
  • 27 September 2024Al-Dhafra 1–0 Dubai UnitedPresidents Cup
  • 27 April 2024Dubai United 1–3 Al-DhafraDivision 1
  • 16 December 2023Al-Dhafra 1–1 Dubai UnitedDivision 1

Leading scorers: Al-Dhafra and Dubai United

Al-Dhafra

GoalsAssists

  • S. Kaba31

Dubai United

GoalsAssists

  • Willy Semedo42
  • Adeel Al Chadli22
  • S. Babicka21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Dhafra beat Dubai United 5–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dubai United at 52% and given a win for Al-Dhafra 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dominique Mendy (penalty) 33' for Al-Dhafra, Willy Semedo (penalty) 40' for Dubai United, Sory Kaba 41' for Al-Dhafra, Sory Kaba 48' for Al-Dhafra, Daraman Komari 68' for Al-Dhafra, Arielson Sampaio·Galvao 90+1' for Al-Dhafra. On expected goals it finished 2.39–2.42.

How the call on Al-Dhafra v Dubai United has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 27% / 25% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 25% / 23% / 52%: the biggest move is Dubai United's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Al-Dhafra win25%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Dubai United win52%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.