21 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Mar del Plata
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Aldosivi 1-3 Union Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aldosivi, 29% draw, 29% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aldosivi at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aldosivi0%Draw1%Union Santa Fe99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Vombergarassist: A. Sosa
18'
45+2'
Juan Pintado
51'
⚽L. Menossiassist: M. Estigarribia
62'
⚽C. Tarragona
64'
⚽C. Tarragonaassist: M. Luna Diale
🔁L. Castroout: F. Perruzzi
66'
🔁A. Chavezout: N. Cordero
66'
Elías López
71'
🔁M. Valesout: M. Garcia
73'
🔁N. Gaitanout: B. Dadin
73'
Juan Bautista Dadín
75'
80'
🔁M. Estigarribiaout: E. Ramirez
Néstor Breitenbruch
82'
🔁A. Vombergarout: N. Guzman
82'
85'
Julián Palacios
85'
•Julián Palacios
86'
🔁C. Tarragonaout: B. Cuello
90+2'
🔁J. Pintadoout: M. Rocha

Match stats — Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe

43%Possession57%
13Shots18
4On target7
4Corners4
0.36xG1.54

Goals against chances

Aldosivi1 from 0.36 xGmore than the chances were worth
Union Santa Fe3 from 1.54 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aldosivi 4-2-3-1
  • 42L. AcostaG
  • 14E. LopezD
  • 25N. BreitenbruchD
  • 32J. PomboD
  • 38M. ValesD
  • 19L. CastroM
  • 22A. SosaM
  • 29A. VombergarM
  • 10N. GaitanM
  • 21M. GodoyM
  • 18A. ChavezF
Substitutes
  • 23I. ChiccoG
  • 13B. CufreD
  • 28S. MoyaD
  • 33N. ZalazarD
  • 4R. GonzalezD
  • 15F. PerruzziM
  • 8M. Garcia
  • 16B. DadinF
  • 9N. CorderoF
Coach: Israel Damonte
Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 2M. RodriguezD
  • 26J. LuduenaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 11M. Luna DialeM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
  • 19M. EstigarribiaF
Substitutes
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 4M. RochaD
  • 12B. PittonD
  • 44T. FagioliD
  • 32N. GarciaD
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 29S. VeraM
  • 46S. GrellaM
  • 34M. PeresuttiM
Coach: Leonardo Madelon

Form going into Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe

Aldosivi

  • D0-0Tigre15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Rosario Central7 August 2026
  • L1-2Gimnasia La Plata2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Barracas Central29 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Defensa Y Justicia24 July 2026

Union Santa Fe

  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe

  • 23 February 2026Union Santa Fe 1–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 October 2025Union Santa Fe 0–2 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 27 March 2025Aldosivi 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 August 2022Union Santa Fe 0–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 October 2021Aldosivi 1–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 January 2021Aldosivi 1–3 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Aldosivi and Union Santa Fe

Aldosivi

No leading scorers listed yet.

Union Santa Fe

  • C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.