Lech Poznan vs FC Thun UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 74% Lech Poznan, 15% draw, 11% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 74% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs FC Thun
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
FC Thun
- L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Lech Poznan and FC Thun in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
| 10 | FC Thun | Super League | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ekstraklasa · Super League
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and FC Thun
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.