20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Lech Poznan vs FC Thun UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time7 – 0

Final score: Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Lech Poznan, 15% draw, 11% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League Play-offs tie. Second leg: FC Thun v Lech Poznan, 27 Aug →

Lech Poznan went through 9–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Lech Poznan at 74%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan99%Draw1%FC Thun0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽P. Walemark
10'
⚽A. Sayyadmaneshassist: P. Rodriguez
20'
⚽P. Walemarkassist: M. Gurgul
25'
⚽M. Skrzypczakassist: A. Kozubal
31'
🔁P. Walemarkout: D. Hakans
37'
45+1'
🔁M. Gutbubout: F. Dursun
⚽R. Murawskiassist: P. Rodriguez
45'
46'
🔁M. Heuleout: T. Strannegard
46'
🔁N. Zoukitout: F. Saiz
⚽D. Hakansassist: A. Sayyadmanesh
47'
50'
Nils Reichmuth
56'
🔁N. Reichmuthout: N. Burgy
🔁P. Rodriguezout: R. Gumny
64'
🔁L. Palmaout: G. Berggren
64'
66'
•Furkan Dursun
70'
Tom Strannegård
⚽R. Gumnyassist: M. Gurgul
79'
🔁A. Kozubalout: K. Delikat
80'
🔁A. Sayyadmaneshout: W. Szymczak
80'
82'
🔁B. Labeauout: L. Dahler
Radosław Murawski
87'

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs FC Thun

56%Possession44%
11On target4
5Corners3

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2J. PereiraD
  • 27W. MonkaD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 10P. WalemarkM
  • 21P. RodriguezM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
Substitutes
  • 41B. MrozekG
  • 35M. PruchniewskiG
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 3A. DouglasD
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 53K. DelikatM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
  • 56W. Szymczak
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 23M. BurkiD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 16J. RothM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 33M. GutbubF
  • 96B. LabeauF
Substitutes
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 22D. WaltiG
  • 5N. BurgyD
  • 17A. BalarubanD
  • 37L. DahlerD
  • 18T. StrannegardD
  • 8F. SaizM
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 80S. LengenF
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

Form going into Lech Poznan vs FC Thun

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
  • W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
  • W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
  • L0-3Aarhus29 July 2026

FC Thun

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
  • W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
  • L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026

What these results say

  • Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
  • FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lech Poznan beat FC Thun 7–0. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 74%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: P. Walemark 10' for Lech Poznan, A. Sayyadmanesh 20' for Lech Poznan, P. Walemark 25' for Lech Poznan, M. Skrzypczak 31' for Lech Poznan, R. Murawski 45' for Lech Poznan, D. Hakans 47' for Lech Poznan, R. Gumny 79' for Lech Poznan.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.