Paks vs Ujpest NB I prediction & result
Final score: Paks 2-0 Ujpest.
Before kick-off the model made it 82% Paks, 9% draw, 9% Ujpest — fair odds of 1.22, 11.11 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paks at 82% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paks vs Ujpest
Line-ups
Form going into Paks vs Ujpest
Paks
- L2-3away to Puskas Academy16 August 2026
- D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026
Ujpest
- D1-1MTK Budapest15 August 2026
- W4-2away to Kisvarda FC8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Paks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paks vs Ujpest
- 7 March 2026Ujpest 0–0 PaksNB I
- 23 November 2025Paks 1–3 UjpestNB I
- 10 August 2025Ujpest 1–2 PaksNB I
- 14 March 2025Paks 6–1 UjpestNB I
- 9 November 2024Ujpest 0–0 PaksNB I
- 4 August 2024Paks 2–1 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Paks and Ujpest
Paks
- J. Szalai6 goals1 assists
- M. Pető3 goals
- Z. Haraszti2 goals2 assists
Ujpest
- A. Matko4 goals2 assists
- E. Amenyido3 goals3 assists
- G. Vlijter2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.