Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Amiens 1-1 Thionville Lusitanos.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Amiens, 23% draw, 15% Thionville Lusitanos — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Amiens at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 40Y. Pandor
- 3A. Julloux
- 2A. Chabane
- 4K. Mbala
- 23N. Herisse
- 25E. Genton
- 24E. Somon
- 17A. Giacomini
- 22R. Boissier
- 32L. Diakite
- 15M. Colin
- 1V. Delins
- 11C. Fromager
- 8C. Suljic
- 6G. Foll
- 31I. Ramla
- 28E. Julien
- 13Y. Rafii
- 40W. Bedfian
- 6M. Aljic
- 5J. Atangana
- 23S. Bouzar
- 17D. Luvualu
- 8S. Kilic
- 26E. Montet
- 20B. Diarra
- 22J. Moustaid
- 9K. Bouhmidi
- 14S. Kalambayi Mukuta
- 16A. Parisot
- 15C. Wanduka
- 27M. Rampont
- 7K. Tubio
- 10B. Labissiere
- 25J. Lauratet
- 21A. Gouletquer
Form going into Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos
Amiens
Ligue 3
- D1-1away to Valenciennes17 October 2026
- W3-0Villefranche3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Quevilly26 September 2026
Thionville Lusitanos
Ligue 3
- L1-2Versailles17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Le Puy Foot3 October 2026
- L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Amiens | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 20 |
| 11 | Thionville Lusitanos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Amiens and Thionville Lusitanos drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Amiens at 62% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: K. Bouhmidi 35' for Thionville Lusitanos, Y. Rafii 48' for Amiens.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Amiens a 27.2% chance to win the league: 29.5% after a win, 23.6% after a draw, 18.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.6%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
For Thionville Lusitanos the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 8.5% going in: 14.1% after a win, 8.9% after a draw, 6.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.9%.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Amiens v Thionville Lusitanos has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 53% / 23% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 62% / 23% / 15%: the biggest move is Amiens's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Amiens win62%▲ +9
- Draw23%=
- Thionville Lusitanos win15%▼ −9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.