La Roche VF vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: La Roche VF 2-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% La Roche VF, 21% draw, 12% Bourg-en-bresse 01 — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
La Roche VF at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1I. Ahamada
- 27H. Lamy
- 18M. Rabuel
- 5T. Allemand
- 29G. Violleau
- 2M. Mahop
- 19M. Villette
- 26J. Beaulieu
- 10M. Ndiaye
- 20A. Araujo
- 9M. Samb
- 16J. Raux
- 4J. Behlow
- 28T. Renaudineau
- 11D. Bangoura
- 17M. Vrignon
- 8K. Bensoula
- 22E. Morel
- 1L. Montfort
- 25A. Sabri
- 4A. Dihad
- 5Q. Lacour
- 29N. Dede-Lhomme
- 14A. Krizoua
- 6R. Souici
- 22T. Gomes
- 28A. Gharbi
- 8T. Frayssinous
- 15T. Ehling
- 30M. Seye
- 27R. Muro
- 7O. Muepu
- 19M. Tyburn
- 23M. El Hajjami
- 10M. El Wakil
- 33T. Adoumbou
Form going into La Roche VF vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
La Roche VF
Ligue 3
- L1-2away to Caen15 October 2026
- W3-1Aubagne3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Ligue 3
- L0-1Fleury 9117 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rouen3 October 2026
- D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 27 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
La Roche VF beat Bourg-en-bresse 01 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for La Roche VF at 67%. The goals: M. Samb 57' for La Roche VF, M. Vrignon 64' for La Roche VF.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave La Roche VF a 81.0% chance to finish in the top six: 83.1% after a win, 77.4% after a draw, 73.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.1%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Bourg-en-bresse 01 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 90.9% going in: 85.7% after a win, 91.3% after a draw, 91.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.9%, 1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.