31 October 2026, 13:45 UTC

Cannes vs Valenciennes Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Pierre de Coubertin, Cannes
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Cannes 2-1 Valenciennes.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Cannes, 25% draw, 17% Valenciennes — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cannes at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cannes98%Draw2%Valenciennes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
L. Boiteau
⚽S. Corchiaassist: L. Morante
14'
29'
🔁L. Boiteauout: S. Belloumou
50'
⚽M. Rouai
60'
D. Goprou
L. Hervieu
63'
🔁C. Goncalvesout: E. Caumont
66'
🔁C. Makutunguout: H. Abderrahmane
66'
🔁O. Sidibeout: B. Oggad
66'
67'
•
⚽J. Lopezassist: B. Oggad
72'
74'
🔁G. Courtetout: C. Nyemb
A. N'Diaye
75'
🔁A. N'Diayeout: C. Ndoye
77'
R. Gerbeaud
78'
79'
🔁D. Abuout: V. Marcel
🔁R. Gerbeaudout: M. Die
80'
•
82'
90+7'
M. Zogba
90+8'
C. Rocchia

Line-ups

Cannes
  • 1Q. Beunardeau
  • 14S. Corchia
  • 17L. Gueho
  • 24L. Morante
  • 3C. Makutungu
  • 4L. Hervieu
  • 6C. Goncalves
  • 22O. Sidibe
  • 25A. N'Diaye
  • 20J. Lopez
  • 23R. Gerbeaud
Substitutes
  • 30F. Vanni
  • 27H. Abderrahmane
  • 15C. Ndoye
  • 8E. Caumont
  • 11A. Kerouedan
  • 29M. Die
  • 10B. Oggad
Coach: Mathieu Chabert
Valenciennes
  • 40J. Lacombe
  • 2D. Abu
  • 5B. Passi
  • 6M. Zogba
  • 22D. Goprou
  • 13C. Rocchia
  • 8M. Rouai
  • 19T. Marechal
  • 26L. Boiteau
  • 18G. Courtet
  • 10D. Diomande
Substitutes
  • 30M. Lelo
  • 28A. Wahib
  • 21V. Marcel
  • 25S. Belloumou
  • 15I. Tounkara
  • 27Z. Amir
  • 29C. Nyemb

Form going into Cannes vs Valenciennes

Cannes

Ligue 3

  • L1-2away to Villefranche17 October 2026
  • W3-1Quevilly3 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Orleans26 September 2026

Valenciennes

Ligue 3

  • D1-1Amiens17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Versailles3 October 2026
  • W2-1Le Puy Foot26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Cannes12462148+618
15Valenciennes122461319-610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Cannes beat Valenciennes 2–1. The model had made a win for Cannes its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Corchia 14' for Cannes, M. Rouai 50' for Valenciennes, J. Lopez 72' for Cannes.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cannes a 72.0% chance to finish in the top six: 75.8% after a win, 67.1% after a draw, 63.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.8%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Valenciennes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.6% going in: 14.6% after a win, 23.2% after a draw, 25.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.3%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cannes v Valenciennes has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 63% / 23% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 58% / 25% / 17%: the biggest move is Cannes's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Cannes win58%▼ −5
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Valenciennes win17%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.