31 October 2026, 13:45 UTC

Bastia vs Quevilly Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Bastia 2-0 Quevilly.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Bastia, 28% draw, 32% Quevilly — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bastia at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bastia96%Draw4%Quevilly0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Y. Gazzaoui
35'
S. Come Ruiz
⚽M. Boumaaouiassist: D. Tamba
49'
50'
A. Diaby
M. Boumaaoui
52'
🔁M. Boumaaouiout: C. Rodrigues
62'
🔁D. Tambaout: E. Garnier
62'
73'
🔁S. Mopilaout: Y. Gaya
🔁J. Eickmayerout: L. Belal
73'
🔁H. Makalouout: M. Petrignani
74'
N. Douce
79'
81'
🔁B. El Kaddouriout: R. Rosa
81'
🔁R. Silvaout: W. Tchimbembe
81'
🔁S. Come Ruizout: M. Ros
🔁A. Zaouaiout: C. Melieres
85'
88'
W. Tchimbembe
⚽E. Garnierassist: C. Rodrigues
90+4'

Line-ups

Bastia
  • 1T. De Percin
  • 2N. Zilliox
  • 20G. Akueson
  • 4A. Roncaglia
  • 21N. Douce
  • 17J. Eickmayer
  • 6F. Fall
  • 14D. Tamba
  • 3H. Makalou
  • 10A. Zaouai
  • 29M. Boumaaoui
Substitutes
  • 16S. Contena
  • 28M. Petrignani
  • 33N. Alebate
  • 12L. Belal
  • 23E. Garnier
  • 7C. Rodrigues
  • 13C. Melieres
Coach: Laurent Peyrelade
Quevilly
  • 16M. Silistrie
  • 28S. Mopila
  • 26V. Theresin
  • 18M. Hamdi
  • 34B. El Kaddouri
  • 19Y. Gazzaoui
  • 7S. Come Ruiz
  • 4A. Diaby
  • 17D. Sarr
  • 20G. Capuano
  • 29R. Silva
Substitutes
  • 40T. Viel
  • 2M. Ros
  • 5Y. Gaya
  • 21N. Bouekou
  • 8W. Tchimbembe
  • 6E. Gafour
  • 22R. Rosa
Coach: Santos Gabriel

Form going into Bastia vs Quevilly

Bastia

Ligue 3

  • D1-1away to Concarneau17 October 2026
  • D1-1Orleans1 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026

Quevilly

Ligue 3

  • W3-2Orleans17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
  • D1-1Amiens26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Bastia124351014-415
10Quevilly124441316-316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bastia vs Quevilly

  • 10 February 2024Quevilly 0–1 BastiaLigue 2
  • 16 December 2023Bastia 0–0 QuevillyLigue 2
  • 11 February 2023Bastia 0–1 QuevillyLigue 2
  • 10 January 2023Quevilly 1–1 BastiaLigue 2
  • 8 January 2022Bastia 3–0 QuevillyLigue 2
  • 18 August 2021Quevilly 1–2 BastiaLigue 2

The result against the call

Bastia beat Quevilly 2–0. The model had made a win for Bastia its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Boumaaoui 49' for Bastia, E. Garnier 90+4' for Bastia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bastia a 16.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.4% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 20.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.4%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

For Quevilly the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 20.1% going in: 24.2% after a win, 20.0% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.8%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bastia v Quevilly has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Bastia's chance of winning, down 15 points.

  1. Bastia win40%▼ −15
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Quevilly win32%▲ +13

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.