Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów I Liga prediction

Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Gdynia

Our model says: Arka Gdynia 1–0 Ruch Chorzów

The model makes it 39% Arka Gdynia, 30% draw, 31% Ruch Chorzów — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.29, Ruch Chorzów 1.11.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Arka Gdynia's rating is built from 14 Polish I Liga matches and Ruch Chorzów's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Arka Gdynia are 12th on 18 points from 14 games; Ruch Chorzów are 5th on 22 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Arka Gdynia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Podbeskidzie.
  • Ruch Chorzów have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Stal Mielec.
  • Last 4 meetings: Arka Gdynia 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2025, ended Ruch Chorzów 0–1 Arka Gdynia.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów

49%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Arka Gdynia win Draw Ruch Chorzów win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Arka Gdynia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Arka Gdynia at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów

Arka Gdynia

I Liga

  • W3-1Podbeskidzie7 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów3 November 2026
  • W3-1Nieciecza24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk18 October 2026
  • L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026

Ruch Chorzów

I Liga

  • L0-2away to Stal Mielec8 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Pogoń Siedlce3 November 2026
  • W2-0Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki25 October 2026
  • W3-0Odra Opole16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Arka Gdynia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Arka Gdynia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Arka Gdynia had three goals or more.
  • Ruch Chorzów scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ruch Chorzów had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arka Gdynia145361917+218
5Ruch Chorzów146441714+322

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Arka Gdynia

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today

Win 6%
Draw 9%
Defeat 12%

Ruch Chorzów

Chance to finish in the top two · 19% today

Win 26%
Draw 17%
Defeat 14%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów

  • 8 March 2025Ruch Chorzów 0–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 22 August 2024Arka Gdynia 1–1 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
  • 13 May 2023Arka Gdynia 0–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
  • 16 October 2022Ruch Chorzów 2–4 Arka GdyniaI Liga

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ruch Chorzów (5th, with Arka Gdynia 12th), while our numbers lean to Arka Gdynia. Arka Gdynia rate 0.54 in attack and 1.64 in defence, Ruch Chorzów 0.56 and 1.47 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arka Gdynia a 2.1% chance of the title and Ruch Chorzów 8.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Arka Gdynia Ruch Chorzów
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.56
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.29 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Arka Gdynia the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Arka Gdynia against 1.11 for Ruch Chorzów. Arka Gdynia's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.47 for Ruch Chorzów.

Arka Gdynia carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.37 for Ruch Chorzów. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Arka Gdynia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Arka Gdynia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Arka Gdynia's ratings take away 2 points and Ruch Chorzów's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Arka Gdynia's ratings41%−2
  5. Ruch Chorzów's ratings39%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Arka GdyniaRuch Chorzów
14Matches14
5W 3D 6LRecord6W 4D 4L
19 1.4 per gameGoals scored17 1.2 per game
17 1.2 per gameGoals conceded14 1.0 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets6 of 14
4 of 14Failed to score5 of 14
–Penalties scored3 of 3
26 1.9 per gameYellow cards27 1.9 per game
3Red cards1

Arka Gdynia at home · Ruch Chorzów away

7Played8
4W 2D 1LRecord2W 3D 3L
16–6Goals for – against5–8
2 of 7Clean sheets3 of 8

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Arka Gdynia 14, Ruch Chorzów 14.

Arka Gdynia scored 254611
Ruch Chorzów conceded 111174

Arka Gdynia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Ruch Chorzów have let in 1 there.

Ruch Chorzów scored 113326
Arka Gdynia conceded 044234

Ruch Chorzów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Arka Gdynia have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Arka Gdynia

  • at Stal Mielec4 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
  • vs Odra Opole12 Dec · I Ligawin 53%
  • at Stal Rzeszów6 Feb · I Ligawin 35%
  • vs Unia Skierniewice13 Feb · I Ligawin 51%

Ruch Chorzów

  • vs Puszcza Niepołomice6 Dec · I Ligawin 49%
  • vs Nieciecza12 Dec · I Ligawin 48%
  • at Miedz Legnica6 Feb · I Ligawin 29%
  • vs Polonia Warszawa13 Feb · I Ligawin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.