Odra Opole
vs
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Odra Opole 0–1 Polonia Warszawa
The model makes it 27% Odra Opole, 29% draw, 44% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Odra Opole 0.99, Polonia Warszawa 1.39.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
One-sided: Polonia Warszawa are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Odra Opole's rating is built from 48 Polish I Liga matches and Polonia Warszawa's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Odra Opole are bottom on 12 points from 14 games; Polonia Warszawa are top on 25 points from 14 games — I Liga.
- Odra Opole are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat at home to Unia Skierniewice.
- Polonia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Warta Poznań.
- Last 6 meetings: Polonia Warszawa 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Odra Opole 1–2 Polonia Warszawa.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Odra Opole vs Polonia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
Polonia Warszawa at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Odra Opole vs Polonia Warszawa
Odra Opole
I Liga
- L3-5Unia Skierniewice6 November 2026
- L0-3away to Polonia Bytom2 November 2026
- L0-1Pogoń Siedlce25 October 2026
- L0-3away to Ruch Chorzów16 October 2026
- W1-0Miedz Legnica11 October 2026
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga
- W3-0away to Warta Poznań7 November 2026
- D1-1away to ŁKS Łódź2 November 2026
- D1-1Miedz Legnica23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
What these results say
- Odra Opole failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Odra Opole conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Odra Opole | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 |
| 1 | Polonia Warszawa | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Odra Opole
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 76% today
Polonia Warszawa
Chance to finish in the top two · 53% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Odra Opole vs Polonia Warszawa
- 24 May 2026Odra Opole 1–2 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 23 November 2025Polonia Warszawa 1–0 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 5 April 2025Odra Opole 0–1 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 14 September 2024Polonia Warszawa 3–0 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 19 May 2024Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 26 November 2023Odra Opole 3–0 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Odra Opole a 0% chance of the title and Polonia Warszawa 34.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polonia Warszawa the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Odra Opole against 1.39 for Polonia Warszawa. Odra Opole's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.56 for Polonia Warszawa.
How the model reaches 44% for Polonia Warszawa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Polonia Warszawa to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Odra Opole's ratings add 7 points and Polonia Warszawa's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Odra Opole's ratings35%+7
- Polonia Warszawa's ratings44%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Odra Opole at home · Polonia Warszawa away
League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Odra Opole 14, Polonia Warszawa 14.
Odra Opole score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Polonia Warszawa have let in 2 there.
Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Odra Opole have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Odra Opole
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki5 Dec · I Ligawin 21%
- at Arka Gdynia12 Dec · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Chrobry Głogów6 Feb · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice13 Feb · I Ligawin 34%
Polonia Warszawa
- vs Podbeskidzie6 Dec · I Ligawin 54%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice12 Dec · I Ligawin 52%
- at Unia Skierniewice6 Feb · I Ligawin 40%
- at Ruch Chorzów13 Feb · I Ligawin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.