Polish I Liga predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

17:00 UTC Chrobry Głogów vs Puszcza Niepołomice — model 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.33 · 3.57. Evenly matched
19:30 UTC Miedz Legnica vs ŁKS Łódź — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

14:30 UTC Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań — model 49% / 28% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.57 · 4.35. Evenly matched
14:30 UTC Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched
14:30 UTC Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec — model 58% / 23% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.72 · 4.35 · 5.26. Edge: Polonia Warszawa

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

11:00 UTC Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Siedlce — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched
13:30 UTC Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. Edge: Lechia Gdansk
16:00 UTC Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Bytom — model 37% / 25% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.70 · 4.00 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach

Monday 23 November — 1 match

17:00 UTC Podbeskidzie vs Nieciecza — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 2 matches

17:00 UTC Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce — model 46% / 29% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.45 · 4.00. Evenly matched
19:30 UTC Chrobry Głogów vs Unia Skierniewice — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

14:30 UTC Nieciecza vs Stal Rzeszów — model 54% / 23% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.35 · 4.35. Edge: Nieciecza
14:30 UTC Odra Opole vs Polonia Warszawa — model 27% / 29% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.70 · 3.45 · 2.27. One-sided: Polonia Warszawa
14:30 UTC Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23. Evenly matched
16:00 UTC Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów — model 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.33 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

13:30 UTC ŁKS Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk — model 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.70 · 3.70. Evenly matched
16:00 UTC Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec — model 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.85 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 4 of 9 matches. Across all 46 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 41% of results.

Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Miedz Legnica — the model said 38% / 30% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Odra Opole 3–5 Unia Skierniewice — the model said 39% / 31% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Arka Gdynia 3–1 Podbeskidzie — the model said 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Nieciecza 2–2 Chrobry Głogów — the model said 46% / 29% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Warta Poznań 0–3 Polonia Warszawa — the model said 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Polonia Bytom 1–0 Lechia Gdansk — the model said 45% / 24% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Stal Rzeszów — the model said 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — the model said 35% / 31% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Stal Mielec 2–0 Ruch Chorzów — the model said 31% / 27% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result missed.

Polish I Liga so far

Top of the table

1. Polonia Warszawa — 25 pts from 14 (7W 4D 3L, goals 23–15)
2. ŁKS Łódź — 25 pts from 14 (7W 4D 3L, goals 17–12)
3. Polonia Bytom — 24 pts from 14 (6W 6D 2L, goals 24–20)
4. Lechia Gdansk — 22 pts from 14 (7W 1D 6L, goals 25–22)
5. Ruch Chorzów — 22 pts from 14 (6W 4D 4L, goals 17–14)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 180 matches left: Polonia Warszawa 34.3%, ŁKS Łódź 16.2%, Polonia Bytom 10.8%.