Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Arminia Bielefeld, 29% draw, 38% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
- 29 April 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 22 October 2022Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 21 December 2019FC St. Pauli 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 29 July 2019Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 14 April 2019FC St. Pauli 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 4 November 2018Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld
- J. Grodowski4 goals
FC St. Pauli
- T. Hara2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.