Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Arminia Bielefeld, 29% draw, 38% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC St. Pauli at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. KerskenG
- 7H. KoudossouD
- 5M. BauerD
- 19M. GrosserD
- 17A. SickerD
- 21S. RussoM
- 14M. MomuluhM
- 6M. MehlemM
- 38M. WorlM
- 10J. RocheltM
- 11J. GrodowskiF
- 18L. OppermannG
- 3J. FelixD
- 29T. HandwerkerD
- 8S. SchreckM
- 31L. JensenM
- 42T. WegenerM
- 30I. YoungF
- 9D. MinF
- 27B. BoakyeF
- 1B. VollG
- 4D. NemethD
- 6M. MathisenD
- 15T. AndoD
- 11A. PyrkaM
- 20M. RasmussenM
- 8E. SmithM
- 23L. OppieM
- 10B. HrgotaF
- 18T. HaraF
- 19M. KaarsF
- 33D. MitovG
- 25A. DzwigalaD
- 21L. RitzkaD
- 22S. KleinM
- 24C. MetcalfeM
- 14E. AhlstrandM
- 16J. FujitaM
- 9A. CeesayF
- 7Y. NiangF
Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
All competitions we cover
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
- 29 April 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 22 October 2022Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 21 December 2019FC St. Pauli 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 29 July 2019Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 14 April 2019FC St. Pauli 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 4 November 2018Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski72
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC St. Pauli at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Rochelt 13' for Arminia Bielefeld, T. Hara 20' for FC St. Pauli, J. Grodowski 51' for Arminia Bielefeld, A. Ceesay 65' for FC St. Pauli. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.00.