AS Marsa
vs
CS Sfaxien
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: AS Marsa 0–1 CS Sfaxien
The model makes it 29% AS Marsa, 28% draw, 43% CS Sfaxien — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AS Marsa 1.13, CS Sfaxien 1.49.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to CS Sfaxien: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. AS Marsa's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and CS Sfaxien's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AS Marsa are 11th on 6 points from 6 games; CS Sfaxien are 8th on 10 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- AS Marsa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to CS Hammam-Lif.
- CS Sfaxien are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to ES Sahel.
- Last 6 meetings: CS Sfaxien 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended AS Marsa 0–3 CS Sfaxien.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AS Marsa vs CS Sfaxien
Has the model earned this number?
CS Sfaxien at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AS Marsa vs CS Sfaxien
AS Marsa
Ligue 1
- D1-1CS Hammam-Lif23 October 2026
- W3-0ES Metlaoui18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane11 October 2026
- W1-0ES Sahel12 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Tunis6 September 2026
CS Sfaxien
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to ES Sahel7 November 2026
- D0-0ES Tunis29 October 2026
- L0-1away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer10 October 2026
- W2-0CA Bizertin20 September 2026
- D1-1away to US Ben Guerdane16 September 2026
What these results say
- AS Marsa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for CS Sfaxien had two goals or fewer.
- CS Sfaxien failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AS Marsa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | CS Sfaxien | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AS Marsa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
CS Sfaxien
Chance to finish in the top two · 19% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: AS Marsa vs CS Sfaxien
- 9 May 2026AS Marsa 0–3 CS SfaxienLigue 1
- 8 November 2025CS Sfaxien 2–0 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 19 April 2024CS Sfaxien 0–1 AS MarsaCup
- 5 November 2023CS Sfaxien 3–0 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 27 August 2023AS Marsa 0–1 CS SfaxienLigue 1
- 10 September 2022AS Marsa 0–2 CS SfaxienCup
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AS Marsa a 0% chance of the title and CS Sfaxien 5.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CS Sfaxien the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for AS Marsa against 1.49 for CS Sfaxien. AS Marsa's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.24 for CS Sfaxien.
How the model reaches 43% for CS Sfaxien to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CS Sfaxien to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, AS Marsa's ratings add 7 points and CS Sfaxien's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- AS Marsa's ratings36%+7
- CS Sfaxien's ratings43%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AS Marsa at home · CS Sfaxien away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: AS Marsa 7, CS Sfaxien 7.
AS Marsa score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); CS Sfaxien have let in 0 there.
CS Sfaxien score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); AS Marsa have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AS Marsa
- at US Monastirienne5 Dec · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs Club Africain12 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- at ES Hammam-Sousse19 Dec · Ligue 1win 44%
- vs Stade Tunisien26 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
CS Sfaxien
- vs CS Hammam-Lif5 Dec · Ligue 1win 61%
- at Olympique Béja12 Dec · Ligue 1win 53%
- vs ES Metlaoui19 Dec · Ligue 1win 68%
- vs US Monastirienne26 Dec · Ligue 1win 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.