ES Sahel
vs
Club Africain
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Sahel 1–2 Club Africain
The model makes it 30% ES Sahel, 25% draw, 45% Club Africain — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: ES Sahel 1.39, Club Africain 1.80.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Club Africain: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. ES Sahel's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and Club Africain's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Sahel are 10th on 8 points from 6 games; Club Africain are 4th on 13 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Sahel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to CS Sfaxien.
- Club Africain have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Africain 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 January 2026, ended Club Africain 3–0 ES Sahel.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Sahel vs Club Africain
Has the model earned this number?
Club Africain at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Sahel vs Club Africain
ES Sahel
Ligue 1
- D1-1CS Sfaxien7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Olympique Béja18 October 2026
- L0-1CS Hammam-Lif11 October 2026
- L0-1away to AS Marsa12 September 2026
- D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane6 September 2026
Club Africain
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Stade Tunisien3 November 2026
- W3-2CA Bizertin29 October 2026
- L1-2away to US Ben Guerdane10 October 2026
- W1-0ES Zarzis20 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Sahel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ES Sahel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ES Sahel had two goals or fewer.
- Club Africain scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Club Africain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ES Sahel
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Club Africain
Chance to finish in the top two · 25% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: ES Sahel vs Club Africain
- 22 January 2026Club Africain 3–0 ES SahelLigue 1
- 16 August 2025ES Sahel 0–1 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 11 May 2025Club Africain 0–2 ES SahelLigue 1
- 5 January 2025ES Sahel 2–2 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 19 June 2024Club Africain 0–0 ES SahelLigue 1
- 28 April 2024ES Sahel 0–0 Club AfricainLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Sahel a 0% chance of the title and Club Africain 10.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Africain the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for ES Sahel against 1.80 for Club Africain. ES Sahel's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.4 for Club Africain.
How the model reaches 45% for Club Africain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Africain to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, ES Sahel's ratings add 8 points and Club Africain's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- ES Sahel's ratings37%+8
- Club Africain's ratings45%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
ES Sahel at home · Club Africain away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Sahel 7, Club Africain 7.
ES Sahel score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Club Africain have let in 0 there.
Club Africain score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); ES Sahel have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
ES Sahel
- at ES Hammam-Sousse5 Dec · Ligue 1win 43%
- vs Stade Tunisien12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- at ES Zarzis19 Dec · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs US Ben Guerdane26 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
Club Africain
- vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane5 Dec · Ligue 1win 59%
- at AS Marsa12 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
- vs CS Hammam-Lif19 Dec · Ligue 1win 59%
- at Olympique Béja26 Dec · Ligue 1win 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.