ES Tunis
vs
ES Hammam-Sousse
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Tunis 3–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
The model makes it 77% ES Tunis, 15% draw, 8% ES Hammam-Sousse — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).
Expected goals: ES Tunis 3.06, ES Hammam-Sousse 0.75.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: ES Tunis are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. ES Tunis's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and ES Hammam-Sousse's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Tunis are 2nd on 16 points from 7 games; ES Hammam-Sousse are bottom on 1 point from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Tunis are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to US Monastirienne.
- ES Hammam-Sousse have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to CA Bizertin.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Tunis 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2023, ended ES Tunis 2–0 ES Hammam-Sousse.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
Has the model earned this number?
ES Tunis at 77%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Tunis
Ligue 1
- W1-0US Monastirienne7 November 2026
- D0-0away to CS Sfaxien29 October 2026
- W3-1Olympique Béja10 October 2026
- W1-0away to CS Hammam-Lif13 September 2026
- W2-1AS Marsa6 September 2026
ES Hammam-Sousse
Ligue 1
- L1-3away to CA Bizertin23 October 2026
- L0-2US Ben Guerdane17 October 2026
- L0-2away to ES Zarzis11 October 2026
- L1-3Stade Tunisien12 September 2026
- L0-1away to ES Metlaoui6 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Tunis went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- ES Tunis won 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Tunis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ES Tunis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ES Tunis
Chance to finish in the top two · 62% today
ES Hammam-Sousse
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
- 8 February 2023ES Tunis 2–0 ES Hammam-SousseLigue 1
- 9 November 2022ES Hammam-Sousse 0–0 ES TunisLigue 1
- 2 March 2022Esperance Tunis 0–0 Hammam-SousseLigue 1
- 25 November 2021Hammam-Sousse 0–1 Esperance TunisLigue 1
- 29 June 2012Esperance Tunis 7–0 Hammam-SousseLigue 1
- 4 March 2012Hammam-Sousse 0–2 Esperance TunisLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Tunis a 41.1% chance of the title and ES Hammam-Sousse 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Tunis the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.06 expected goals for ES Tunis against 0.75 for ES Hammam-Sousse. ES Tunis's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.41 for ES Hammam-Sousse.
How the model reaches 77% for ES Tunis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ES Tunis to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, ES Tunis's ratings add 17 points and ES Hammam-Sousse's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 77%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- ES Tunis's ratings62%+17
- ES Hammam-Sousse's ratings77%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
ES Tunis at home · ES Hammam-Sousse away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Tunis 7, ES Hammam-Sousse 7.
ES Hammam-Sousse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); ES Tunis have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
ES Tunis
- at Stade Tunisien5 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs ES Zarzis12 Dec · Ligue 1win 60%
- at US Ben Guerdane19 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
- vs CA Bizertin26 Dec · Ligue 1win 63%
ES Hammam-Sousse
- vs ES Sahel5 Dec · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane12 Dec · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs AS Marsa19 Dec · Ligue 1win 29%
- at CS Hammam-Lif26 Dec · Ligue 1win 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.