6 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

Panathinaikos vs PAOK Super League 1 prediction & result

Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Panathinaikos 3-1 PAOK.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Panathinaikos, 28% draw, 36% PAOK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Panathinaikos at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Panathinaikos99%Draw1%PAOK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Aritz Elustondo
18'
🔁Dimitrios Pelkasout: Dimitris Bataoulas
⚽Vicente Tabordaassist: Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
29'
⚽Andrews Tetteh
38'
45+1'
Dimitris Bataoulas
⚽Vicente Taborda (pen)
45+2'
45'
🔁Andrija Živkovićout: Dimitrios Chatsidis
Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
48'
⚽Andrews Tettehassist: Kings Kangwa
52'
Andrews Tetteh
54'
58'
🔁Baptiste Santamariaout: Mady Camara
🔁Vicente Tabordaout: Cyriel Dessers
61'
🔁Kings Kangwaout: Imrân Louza
62'
🔁Andrews Tettehout: Azzedine Ounahi
67'
•Cyriel Dessers
69'
Cyriel Dessers
69'
75'
🔁Taha Aliout: Taison Barcellos Freda
75'
🔁Christos Zafeirisout: Ognjen ugresic
Etiene Camara
88'
🔁Levi Garcíaout: Elmin Rastoder
90'
🔁Etiene Camaraout: Panagiotis Biniaris
90'
90+2'
⚽Ognjen ugresicassist: Jonjoe Kenny

Match stats — Panathinaikos vs PAOK

71%Possession29%
25Shots5
11On target2
5Corners2

Line-ups

Panathinaikos 4-2-3-1
  • 1Iñaki PeñaG
  • 2D. CalabriaD
  • 6S. de VrijD
  • 55R. van DrongelenD
  • 77G. KiriakopoulosD
  • 22E. CamaraM
  • 42K. KangwaM
  • 20V. TabordaM
  • 99L. GarcíaM
  • 10Santino AndinoM
  • 7A. TettehF
Substitutes
  • 9C. DessersF
  • 12L. ChavesG
  • 8Adriano JagušićM
  • 3Georgios Marios KatrisD
  • 18S. KontourisM
  • 70K. KotsarisG
  • 26I. LouzaM
  • 21A. OunahiM
  • 14E. Palmer-BrownD
Coach: Jacob Neestrup
PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PavlenkaG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 6ElustondoD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 13D. GiannoulisD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 7B. SantamaríaM
  • 14A. ŽivkovićM
  • 10D. PelkasM
  • 22T. AliM
  • 27C. NdiayeF
Substitutes
  • 2M. CamaraM
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 11TaisonF
  • 97D. BataoulasD
  • 52D. ChatsidisF
  • 41D. MonastirlisG
  • 56A. MythouF
  • 47S. ShoretireF
  • 25K. ThymianisD
Coach: A. Lisci

Form going into Panathinaikos vs PAOK

Panathinaikos

  • W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026

PAOK

  • W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
  • W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Panathinaikos4400112+912
2PAOK430194+59

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs PAOK

  • 6 September 2026Panathinaikos 3–1 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 17 May 2026Panathinaikos 2–2 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 5 April 2026PAOK 0–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
  • 11 February 2026PAOK 2–0 PanathinaikosCup
  • 4 February 2026Panathinaikos 0–1 PAOKCup
  • 21 December 2025PAOK 2–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and PAOK

Panathinaikos

  • V. Taborda3 goals1 assists
  • A. Tetteh2 goals
  • K. Kangwa1 goals1 assists

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.