Palermo vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Palermo 3-1 Sampdoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Palermo, 29% draw, 30% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Palermo at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palermo vs Sampdoria
Line-ups
- 1M. PerinG
- 27N. PierozziD
- 13M. BaniD
- 32P. CeccaroniD
- 3T. AugelloD
- 8J. SegreM
- 10F. RanocchiaM
- 23HernaniM
- 7Gabriel StrefezzaF
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 17D. JohnsenF
- 12M. NespolaG
- 96G. MagnaniD
- 11E. GyasiD
- 6C. GomesM
- 99A. GabrielloniF
- 24N. EstévezM
- 84T. CassandroD
- 33A. BozzolanD
- 93F. BarbaD
- 1P. VindahlG
- 29A. Di PardoD
- 3S. GartenmannD
- 15F. Delli CarriD
- 7M. CicconiD
- 45A. MakoumbouM
- 16Y. VerschaerenM
- 6L. HendersonM
- 20D. SinaniF
- 99G. TutinoF
- 10L. InsigneF
- 28O. AbildgaardM
- 11T. BegićF
- 25A. FerrariD
- 96S. MassoloG
- 39L. MezzoteroF
- 41Noà MondaniD
- 12A. KrastevG
- 40Federico PiermatteiD
- 35Leo RodellaM
Form going into Palermo vs Sampdoria
Palermo
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
- W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026
Sampdoria
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palermo vs Sampdoria
- 10 February 2026Sampdoria 3–3 PalermoSerie B
- 12 December 2025Palermo 1–0 SampdoriaSerie B
- 8 March 2025Sampdoria 1–1 PalermoSerie B
- 24 November 2024Palermo 1–1 SampdoriaSerie B
- 17 May 2024Palermo 2–0 SampdoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Palermo and Sampdoria
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen75
- D. Vavassori61
Sampdoria
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palermo beat Sampdoria 3–1. The model had made a win for Palermo its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gabriel Strefezza 9' for Palermo, Joel Pohjanpalo 33' for Palermo, Lorenzo Insigne 63' for Sampdoria, Antonio Palumbo 90+4' for Palermo.
How the call on Palermo v Sampdoria has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Palermo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Palermo win41%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Sampdoria win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.