7 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

Palermo vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Palermo 3-1 Sampdoria.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Palermo, 29% draw, 30% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Palermo at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Palermo96%Draw4%Sampdoria0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gabriel Strefezzaassist: Tommaso Augello
9'
18'
Liam Henderson
18'
Lorenzo Insigne
🔁Gabriel Strefezzaout: Dominic Vavassori
21'
⚽Joel Pohjanpalo
33'
🔁Hernaniout: Antonio Palumbo
45'
Mattia Bani
47'
53'
🔁Danel Sinaniout: Tjas Begic
63'
⚽Lorenzo Insigne
🔁Niccolo Pierozziout: Tommaso Cassandro
65'
🔁Filippo·Ranocchiaout: Nahuel Estévez
65'
70'
🔁Lorenzo Insigneout: Oliver Abildgaard
83'
🔁Yari Verschaerenout: Lorenzo Mezzotero
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Alessandro Gabrielloni
84'
Antonio Palumbo
90+2'
⚽Antonio Palumboassist: Dennis Johnsen
90+4'
90+6'
Manuel Cicconi

Match stats — Palermo vs Sampdoria

46%Possession54%
14Shots14
6On target5
2Corners5

Line-ups

Palermo 4-3-3
  • 1M. PerinG
  • 27N. PierozziD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 3T. AugelloD
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 23HernaniM
  • 7Gabriel StrefezzaF
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
  • 17D. JohnsenF
Substitutes
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 11E. GyasiD
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 99A. GabrielloniF
  • 24N. EstévezM
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 93F. BarbaD
Coach: F. Inzaghi
Sampdoria 4-3-3
  • 1P. VindahlG
  • 29A. Di PardoD
  • 3S. GartenmannD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 7M. CicconiD
  • 45A. MakoumbouM
  • 16Y. VerschaerenM
  • 6L. HendersonM
  • 20D. SinaniF
  • 99G. TutinoF
  • 10L. InsigneF
Substitutes
  • 28O. AbildgaardM
  • 11T. BegićF
  • 25A. FerrariD
  • 96S. MassoloG
  • 39L. MezzoteroF
  • 41Noà MondaniD
  • 12A. KrastevG
  • 40Federico PiermatteiD
  • 35Leo RodellaM
Coach: B. Corradi

Form going into Palermo vs Sampdoria

Palermo

  • W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
  • W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026

Sampdoria

  • L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Cesena23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Palermo431084+410
20Sampdoria401338-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palermo vs Sampdoria

  • 7 September 2026Palermo 3–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 10 February 2026Sampdoria 3–3 PalermoSerie B
  • 12 December 2025Palermo 1–0 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 8 March 2025Sampdoria 1–1 PalermoSerie B
  • 24 November 2024Palermo 1–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 17 May 2024Palermo 2–0 SampdoriaSerie B

Leading scorers: Palermo and Sampdoria

Palermo

  • D. Johnsen3 goals2 assists
  • J. Pohjanpalo1 goals2 assists

Sampdoria

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.