Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Sport Recife.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Atletico Goianiense, 28% draw, 30% Sport Recife — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Goianiense at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Paulo VítorG
- 2EwerthonD
- 3J. BarretoD
- 4Adriano MartinsD
- 6Guilherme LopesD
- 5Leandro VilelaM
- 8PeixotoM
- 7Bruno JoséM
- 10NetinhoM
- 11Soares GeovanyM
- 9João PedroF
- 22Isac Niltton Romão Da SilvaF
- 20Guilherme MarquesM
- 16YuriD
- 18Henrique Freitas AlvesM
- 15GebsonD
- 17CristianoM
- 21MatheusinhoM
- 19MarronyF
- 14NatãD
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 5Marcelo BenevenutoD
- 3Marcelo AjulD
- 96EdsonD
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 8Juan AlanoM
- 10C. de PenaM
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 20D. HernándezF
- 75A. MaronF
- 40Matheus MirandaD
- 21BrennoG
- 9PerottiF
- 68AugustoD
- 77DuduF
- 25ClaysonM
- 6BielM
Form going into Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to CRB7 October 2026
- W2-0America Mineiro3 October 2026
Sport Recife
All competitions we cover
- W2-1São Bernardo6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Athletic Club1 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 38 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 46 | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
- 19 June 2026Sport Recife 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 11 November 2023Sport Recife 0–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 15 July 2023Atletico Goianiense 3–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 31 October 2021Sport Recife 2–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
- 7 July 2021Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Coutinho150
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti151
- Chrystian Barletta144
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Goianiense at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Geovany Soares 45+4' for Atletico Goianiense, Pedro Henrique Perotti 83' for Sport Recife. Sent off: Marcelo Benevenuto (Sport Recife) 65'. On expected goals it finished 1.64–1.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Goianiense a 20.1% chance to finish in the top four: 29.9% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 7.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.2%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.
For Sport Recife the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.4% going in: 21.1% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.4%, 3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.