Operario-PR vs Goias Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Operario-PR 0-2 Goias.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Operario-PR, 25% draw, 25% Goias — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Operario-PR at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Operario-PR vs Goias
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33VagnerG
- 26MaguinhoD
- 16MirandaD
- 43JosephD
- 27Gabriel FelicianoD
- 8J. ZuluagaM
- 39Matheus TrindadeM
- 14Hildeberto PereiraM
- 88Neto ParaíbaM
- 30Pedro VilhenaM
- 99Caio DantasF
- 28DuduF
- 4KlausD
- 1Elias Martello CurzelG
- 21BrennoM
- 5ÍndioM
- 34Renan GustavoD
- 2Mikael DokaD
- 17Nicolas SchulzD
- 18AndréD
- 23TadeuG
- 54Djalma SilvaD
- 3Luiz FelipeD
- 14Lucas RibeiroD
- 6NicolasD
- 5Filipe MachadoM
- 10Lucas LimaM
- 97LourençoM
- 35LuquinhasM
- 18CaduM
- 11Felipe ClementeF
- 55Guilherme BaldóriaM
- 88BrayannM
- 25Luis FellipeD
- 66Danilo CunhaD
- 28GegêM
- 4Ramon MenezesD
- 1Thiago RodriguesG
- 27Wellington RatoM
- 8JuninhoM
Form going into Operario-PR vs Goias
Operario-PR
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Botafogo SP7 October 2026
- L0-3away to Juventude2 October 2026
Goias
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Athletic Club6 October 2026
- L0-3away to Novorizontino2 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Operario-PR | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 51 | 50 | +1 | 57 |
| 8 | Goias | 38 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Operario-PR vs Goias
- 21 June 2026Goias 0–3 Operario-PRSerie B
- 9 August 2025Goias 2–1 Operario-PRSerie B
- 12 April 2025Operario-PR 1–2 GoiasSerie B
- 29 October 2024Goias 3–0 Operario-PRSerie B
- 18 July 2024Operario-PR 2–0 GoiasSerie B
Leading scorers: Operario-PR and Goias
Operario-PR
GoalsAssists
- Boschilia134
- Vinícius Diniz71
Goias
GoalsAssists
- Kadu111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Goias won 2–0 at Operario-PR. The model had leaned towards a win for Operario-PR at 50% and given a win for Goias 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço 16' for Goias, Luiz Felipe Clemente de Almeida 31' for Goias. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.07.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Operario-PR a 2.6% chance to finish in the top four: 3.9% after a win, 1.0% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Operario-PR v Goias has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Operario-PR's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Operario-PR win50%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Goias win25%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.