Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Nautico Recife 0-2 Vila Nova.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Nautico Recife, 28% draw, 35% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Nautico Recife at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1MurielG
- 2ArnaldoD
- 15Léo ÍndioD
- 46Gustavo HenriqueD
- 23Igor FernandesD
- 7ViníciusM
- 8WendersonM
- 41SamuelM
- 9Paulo SérgioM
- 19Kaua Almeida da CostaF
- 10Jean CarlosF
- 5AuremirM
- 27Luiz FelipeM
- 11Victor AndradeF
- 16Luiz CláudioF
- 34WandersonD
- 60Luiz PauloD
- 72DerekF
- 55G. GuruceagaG
- 93Reginaldo LopesD
- 1Helton LeiteG
- 22HaynerD
- 4Douglas MendesD
- 23Jonathan CostaD
- 13Willian FormigaD
- 5João VieiraM
- 15DuduM
- 17Everton GaldinoM
- 10Marquinhos GabrielM
- 99JandersonM
- 49DellatorreF
- 16Igor CariúsD
- 18EnzoM
- 20Nathan CamargoM
- 9LincolnF
- 8Willian MaranhãoM
- 29DalbersonG
- 14AndersonD
- 31DodôM
- 70Emerson UrsoF
Form going into Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Novorizontino8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
Vila Nova
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Cuiaba7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 46 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 39 | +14 | 66 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
- 20 June 2026Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 9 March 2023Nautico Recife 2–1 Vila NovaCopa Do Brasil
- 20 August 2022Nautico Recife 1–2 Vila NovaSerie B
- 6 May 2022Vila Nova 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 11 September 2021Vila Nova 1–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson109
- André Luís92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vila Nova won 2–0 at Nautico Recife. The model had leaned towards a win for Nautico Recife at 37% and given a win for Vila Nova 35%. The goals: Everton Galdino 22' for Vila Nova, Janderson 43' for Vila Nova. On expected goals it finished 0.68–0.57.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vila Nova a 68.6% chance to finish in the top four: 83.3% after a win, 66.5% after a draw, 56.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.3%, 14.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.