Cuiaba vs Avai Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Cuiaba 0-1 Avai.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Cuiaba, 27% draw, 21% Avai — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cuiaba at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cuiaba vs Avai
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1João CarlosG
- 13João BassoD
- 5CalebeD
- 4Vitor MendesD
- 2Igor InocêncioM
- 30RaulM
- 20David MiguelM
- 36LorenzoM
- 41KauanM
- 77Jean DiasM
- 90Fábio GomesF
- 11ElielF
- 14EricD
- 91LuisãoD
- 97Luiz OtávioM
- 96Pedro HenriqueF
- 27Rodrigo FarofaF
- 29Vinicius PeixotoF
- 70Wesley DiasM
- 26João VitorM
- 94Bruno FerreiraG
- 22João Vitor Cardoso de SouzaD
- 3AllysonD
- 38Jefferson MacielD
- 36DGD
- 77Zé RicardoM
- 14Daniel PenhaM
- 95WendersonM
- 8Luiz HenriqueM
- 10Jean LucasM
- 19Caio Suassuna Gonçalves FerreiraF
- 66QuaresmaD
- 5Del PiageM
- 18HyanM
- 1Igor BohnG
- 7Léo ChúF
- 9Léo GamalhoF
- 70GasparF
- 35PedrãoD
- 25Paulo VitorM
Form going into Cuiaba vs Avai
Cuiaba
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Vila Nova7 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
Avai
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Londrina7 October 2026
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cuiaba | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 47 |
| 17 | Avai | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cuiaba vs Avai
- 21 June 2026Avai 1–0 CuiabaSerie B
- 10 August 2025Avai 2–0 CuiabaSerie B
- 11 April 2025Cuiaba 2–2 AvaiSerie B
- 27 October 2022Cuiaba 1–0 AvaiSerie A
- 3 July 2022Avai 1–2 CuiabaSerie A
The result against the call
Avai won 1–0 at Cuiaba. The model had leaned towards a win for Cuiaba at 52% and given a win for Avai 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Daniel Penha 40' for Avai. On expected goals it finished 1.77–0.15.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Avai a 19.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.5% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 24.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.5%, 11 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cuiaba v Avai has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 27% / 21%: the biggest move is Cuiaba's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Cuiaba win52%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Avai win21%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.