Juventude vs São Bernardo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Juventude 2-2 São Bernardo.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Juventude, 25% draw, 23% São Bernardo — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Juventude at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventude vs São Bernardo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 93JandreiG
- 34Rodrigo SamD
- 4MessiasD
- 47Marcos PauloD
- 2Raí RamosM
- 75RaíM
- 29Gabriel PiresM
- 16Diogo BarbosaM
- 11Fábio LimaF
- 25Alisson SafiraF
- 10Marcos PauloF
- 9Alan KardecF
- 97Gabriel PinheiroD
- 17M. CastroF
- 70Juan ChristianF
- 5Luan GonçalvesD
- 8Lucas MineiroM
- 26I. LyD
- 22NathanD
- 12Pedro RochaG
- 1Alex AlvesG
- 2Rodrigo FerreiraD
- 77MarcãoD
- 35JemersonD
- 97AugustoD
- 6ParáD
- 31Lucas FernandesM
- 14Lucas LimaM
- 26EduardoM
- 29PedrinhoM
- 9Felipe GarciaF
- 27EchaporãF
- 42HyoranM
- 7LucasF
- 11Pedro VitorF
- 17RomissonM
- 44Caio Belmonte GarcezM
- 16João Pedro Constancio Dos SantosD
- 30BreninhoM
- 21Hugo SanchesD
Form going into Juventude vs São Bernardo
Juventude
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
- W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026
São Bernardo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Sport Recife6 October 2026
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Juventude | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 71 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventude vs São Bernardo
- 21 June 2026São Bernardo 0–1 JuventudeSerie B
Leading scorers: Juventude and São Bernardo
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí105
São Bernardo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 54 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Juventude and São Bernardo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Juventude at 52% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: sam rodrigo 23' for Juventude, Felipe Garcia (penalty) 45+2' for São Bernardo, Lucas Fernandes 49' for São Bernardo, Raí da Silva Pessanha 69' for Juventude. On expected goals it finished 2.62–1.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juventude a 40.4% chance to win the league: 49.9% after a win, 29.9% after a draw, 22.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 29.9%, 10.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Juventude v São Bernardo has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Juventude's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Juventude win52%▲ +6
- Draw25%▼ −3
- São Bernardo win23%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.