21 September 2026, 22:00 UTC

Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Claudio Fabian Tapia, Barracas
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Barracas Central 0-1 Independiente Rivadavia.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Barracas Central, 29% draw, 34% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Barracas Central at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Barracas Central0%Draw4%Independiente Rivadavia96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽J. I. Florentin Bobadillaassist: L. Gomez
Elías Pereyra
45+2'
🔁E. Rolonout: G. Maroni
53'
Nicolás Demartini
60'
🔁R. Bogarinout: E. Taborda
61'
🔁E. Pereyraout: R. Insua
61'
68'
🔁M. Salasout: L. Bucca
68'
🔁L. Sequeiraout: T. Bottari
🔁R. Barriosout: D. Martinez
77'
🔁N. Briascoout: F. Bruera
77'
77'
🔁F. Sartoriout: L. Diaz
Rodrigo Insúa
81'
Enzo Taborda
89'
89'
Luciano Gómez
Marcelo Agustín Miño
90+4'
Gonzalo Maroni
90+3'
90'
🔁L. Gomezout: A. Vigo
90'
🔁M. Fernandezout: G. Rios

Match stats — Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia

67%Possession33%
8Shots13
2On target6
7Corners5
0.19xG1.09

Goals against chances

Barracas Central0 from 0.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Independiente Rivadavia1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Barracas Central 4-1-3-2
  • 30M. MinoG
  • 13R. BarriosD
  • 15Y. RakD
  • 31N. DemartiniD
  • 17E. PereyraD
  • 5D. MilocM
  • 28R. BogarinM
  • 35E. RolonM
  • 10I. TapiaM
  • 11N. BriascoF
  • 20J. CandiaF
Substitutes
  • 43L. FernandezG
  • 37G. CampiD
  • 4D. MartinezD
  • 2N. CapraroD
  • 33G. MaroniM
  • 19C. ArceM
  • 24E. TabordaF
  • 36T. LavezziF
  • 7J. BarbieriF
Coach: Damian Ayude
Independiente Rivadavia 3-1-4-2
  • 30N. BolcatoG
  • 2L. CostaD
  • 40I. VillalbaD
  • 42S. StuderD
  • 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
  • 14L. GomezM
  • 10M. FernandezM
  • 77L. SequeiraM
  • 3J. M. ElordiM
  • 43F. SartoriF
  • 17M. SalasF
Substitutes
  • 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
  • 28A. VigoD
  • 13A. OsellaD
  • 8L. BuccaM
  • 34S. MoreyraM
  • 27D. CregoM
  • 11G. RiosM
  • 5T. BottariM
  • 32K. A. VazquezM
Coach: Alfredo Berti

Form going into Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia

Barracas Central

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Banfield14 September 2026
  • D0-0Argentinos Juniors7 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Tigre1 September 2026
  • L1-2Platense23 August 2026
  • L0-1Rosario Central16 August 2026

Independiente Rivadavia

All competitions we cover

  • W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
  • W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Barracas Central did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Barracas Central had two goals or fewer.
  • Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Barracas Central167541713+426
7Independiente Rivadavia166552124-323

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia

  • 12 March 2026Independiente Rivadavia 1–2 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 July 2025Barracas Central 0–3 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 January 2025Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 7 October 2024Barracas Central 1–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 March 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–3 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia record →

Leading scorers: Barracas Central and Independiente Rivadavia

Barracas Central

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Independiente Rivadavia

GoalsAssists

  • J. Florentín91
  • A. Arce91
  • F. Sartori80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Independiente Rivadavia won 1–0 at Barracas Central. The model had leaned towards a win for Barracas Central at 37% and given a win for Independiente Rivadavia 34%. The goal: J. I. Florentin Bobadilla 12' for Independiente Rivadavia. On expected goals it finished 0.19–1.09.

How the call on Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia has moved

First published on 7 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Barracas Central's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Barracas Central win37%▼ −6
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Independiente Rivadavia win34%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.