1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Bastia vs Orleans Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bastia 1-1 Orleans.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bastia, 28% draw, 23% Orleans — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bastia at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bastia5%Draw93%Orleans2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

L. Belal
4'
12'
I. Drame
27'
L. Raillot
C. Melieres
42'
🔁R. Beliandjouout: N. Alebate
46'
N. Zilliox
58'
62'
🔁M. Prunierout: A. Ribeiro
🔁H. Makalouout: D. Diarra
64'
⚽C. Melieres
66'
68'
B. Dali-Amar
70'
🔁L. Raillotout: G. Khous
🔁C. Melieresout: M. Petrignani
76'
T. De Percin
83'
S. Contena
84'
I. Monnier
86'
A. Roncaglia
86'
87'
⚽R. Legendre (pen)
🔁C. Rodriguesout: M. Boumaaoui
89'
🔁L. Belalout: D. Tamba
89'
N. Zilliox
90+8'
J. Eickmayer
90+10'

Line-ups

Bastia
  • 1T. De Percin
  • 2N. Zilliox
  • 4A. Roncaglia
  • 35N. Douce
  • 17J. Eickmayer
  • 13C. Melieres
  • 3H. Makalou
  • 12L. Belal
  • 22I. Monnier
  • 7C. Rodrigues
  • 19R. Beliandjou
Substitutes
  • 16S. Contena
  • 34D. Djedje
  • 25D. Diarra
  • 28M. Petrignani
  • 29M. Boumaaoui
  • 14D. Tamba
  • 36N. Alebate
Coach: Laurent Peyrelade
Orleans
  • 1F. Faham
  • 24I. Drame
  • 5M. Sylla
  • 27M. Lemaitre
  • 3T. Ndicka Matam
  • 6H. Aubourg
  • 21L. Raillot
  • 20B. Dali-Amar
  • 7M. Diako
  • 9M. Prunier
  • 19R. Legendre
Substitutes
  • 40S. Moussima
  • 23J. Koembo
  • 12M. Guiheneuf
  • 4E. Balenga
  • 10G. Khous
  • 14Y. Aouladzian
  • 26A. Ribeiro
Coach: Herve Della Maggiore

Form going into Bastia vs Orleans

Bastia

Ligue 3

  • L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026

Orleans

Ligue 3

  • D0-0Cannes26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Bastia124351014-415
14Orleans122551217-511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bastia vs Orleans

  • 29 March 2021Orleans 2–1 BastiaLigue 3
  • 23 October 2020Bastia 1–1 OrleansLigue 3
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.