3 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Fleury 91 vs Caen Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Robert Bobin, Bondoufle
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Fleury 91 3-2 Caen.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fleury 91, 27% draw, 29% Caen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fleury 91 at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fleury 9196%Draw4%Caen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
⚽A. Gnanduilletassist: I. Botella
⚽K. Faradeassist: V. Lavigne
39'
🔁V. Lavigneout: C. Khetir
46'
⚽Y. Verdierassist: K. Farade
60'
64'
⚽Y. Diabyassist: I. Botella
🔁Y. Le Mehauteout: G. Lefebvre
69'
70'
🔁A. Gnanduilletout: S. Diakite
🔁M. Jean-Pierreout: T. Plisson
72'
⚽Y. Verdier
74'
79'
🔁D. Bolumbuout: S. Mbaka
79'
🔁L. Millinerout: H. Saivet
🔁Y. Verdierout: M. Belliard
82'
🔁R. Leleveout: J. Rivas
82'
86'
🔁Z. Bagbemaout: F. Bomo
M. Belliard
88'
T. Plisson
90+3'
90+6'
Y. Diaby

Line-ups

Fleury 91
Coach: Maxime D'Ornano
Caen
Coach: Gael Clichy

Form going into Fleury 91 vs Caen

Fleury 91

Ligue 3

  • L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026

Caen

Ligue 3

  • W3-2Rouen24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Fleury 91124441715+216
3Caen127142215+722

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fleury 91 vs Caen

  • 6 February 2026Caen 1–0 Fleury 91Ligue 3
  • 29 August 2025Fleury 91 1–2 CaenLigue 3

The result against the call

Fleury 91 beat Caen 3–2. The model had made a win for Fleury 91 its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Gnanduillet 30' for Caen, K. Farade 39' for Fleury 91, Y. Verdier 60' for Fleury 91, Y. Diaby 64' for Caen, Y. Verdier 74' for Fleury 91. Sent off: Y. Diaby (Caen) 90+6'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.