Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Bayer Leverkusen, 28% draw, 27% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Line-ups
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 8R. AndrichM
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 7J. HofmannM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 11M. TerrierF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 17R. BakuD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 3M. EstèveD
- 22D. RaumD
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 10B. GrudaM
- 28C. NkunkuM
- 7A. NusaM
- 40RômuloF
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 27T. GomisF
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 16L. KlostermannD
- 45S. KonateF
- 2A. KonéD
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 13N. SeiwaldM
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
RB Leipzig
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
- L1-4away to Como10 September 2026
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
- RB Leipzig scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
- 2 May 2026Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 20 December 2025RB Leipzig 1–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 25 January 2025RB Leipzig 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 31 August 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–3 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 20 January 2024RB Leipzig 2–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku52
- Rômulo50
- A. Nusa47
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 2–0. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Patrik Schick 44' for Bayer Leverkusen, Miguel Gutiérrez 57' for Bayer Leverkusen.
How the call on Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Bayer Leverkusen win45%▼ −3
- Draw28%▲ +2
- RB Leipzig win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.