Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Red Bull Salzburg, 27% draw, 27% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Red Bull Salzburg at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Line-ups
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 18N. VeratschnigD
- 44K. BomaD
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 15B. MazurekM
- 23D. RedzicM
- 19K. KonatéM
- 20E. BaidooM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 33A. CamaraM
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 8S. KitanoF
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 11Y. VertessenF
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 28J. HeilD
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 19S. SeidlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 11A. KayomboF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 6G. HaiderD
- 22A. HelacG
- 10O. KiteishviliM
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 27L. BalboD
- 8F. RózgaM
Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
- W3-0Mjallby AIF27 August 2026
Sturm Graz
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
What these results say
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 30 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
- 3 May 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 20 March 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 9 November 2025Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 20 September 2025Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 9 May 2025Sturm Graz 4–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković80
- K. Konaté40
- Y. Vertessen33
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 3–0. The model had made a win for Red Bull Salzburg its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nikolas Veratschnig 71' for Red Bull Salzburg, Kevin Boma 76' for Red Bull Salzburg, Aboubacar Sidiki Camara 83' for Red Bull Salzburg. Sent off: Jurgen Heil (Sturm Graz) 76'.
How the call on Red Bull Salzburg v Sturm Graz has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Red Bull Salzburg's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Red Bull Salzburg win46%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- Sturm Graz win27%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.