Boluspor
vs
Esenler Erokspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Boluspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor
The model makes it 21% Boluspor, 26% draw, 53% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Boluspor 0.93, Esenler Erokspor 1.80.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Esenler Erokspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Boluspor's rating is built from 51 TFF 1. Lig matches and Esenler Erokspor's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Boluspor are bottom on 4 points from 13 games; Esenler Erokspor are 10th on 18 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Boluspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bodrum FK.
- Esenler Erokspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Muğlaspor.
- Last 4 meetings: Esenler Erokspor 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Esenler Erokspor 2–0 Boluspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Boluspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Has the model earned this number?
Esenler Erokspor at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Boluspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Boluspor
1. Lig
- L1-2Bodrum FK8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Sivasspor1 November 2026
- L0-3Vanspor FK23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK18 October 2026
- L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026
Esenler Erokspor
1. Lig
- W5-0away to Muğlaspor7 November 2026
- W3-2Keçiörengücü30 October 2026
- L2-3away to Batman Petrolspor25 October 2026
- W4-2Mardin 196919 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026
What these results say
- Boluspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Esenler Erokspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Boluspor | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 4 |
| 10 | Esenler Erokspor | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Boluspor vs Esenler Erokspor
- 27 February 2026Esenler Erokspor 2–0 Boluspor1. Lig
- 3 October 2025Boluspor 1–3 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 2 February 2025Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Boluspor1. Lig
- 24 August 2024Boluspor 2–1 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Boluspor and Esenler Erokspor
Boluspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Esenler Erokspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Kanga51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Boluspor a 0% chance of the title and Esenler Erokspor 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esenler Erokspor the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Boluspor against 1.80 for Esenler Erokspor. Boluspor's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.39 for Esenler Erokspor.
How the model reaches 53% for Esenler Erokspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Esenler Erokspor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Boluspor's ratings add 11 points and Esenler Erokspor's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Boluspor's ratings40%+11
- Esenler Erokspor's ratings53%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Boluspor at home · Esenler Erokspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Boluspor 13, Esenler Erokspor 14.
Boluspor score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Esenler Erokspor have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Boluspor
- at Bursaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 7%
- vs İstanbulspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 38%
- at Kayserispor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 6%
Esenler Erokspor
- vs Pendikspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 57%
- at Vanspor FK13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 42%
- vs Bandırmaspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 52%
- vs Sivasspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 59%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.