TFF 1. Lig predictions

Friday 20 November — 1 match

• 17:00 UTC Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor — model 41% / 32% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.13 · 3.70. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

• 10:30 UTC İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü — model 27% / 25% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 4.00 · 2.08. One-sided: Keçiörengücü
• 10:30 UTC Mardin 1969 vs Bandırmaspor — model 48% / 30% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.33 · 4.55. Edge: Mardin 1969
• 13:00 UTC Kayserispor vs Sarıyer — model 67% / 21% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.49 · 4.76 · 8.33. One-sided: Kayserispor
• 16:00 UTC Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor — model 66% / 22% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.52 · 4.55 · 8.33. One-sided: Fatih Karagümrük

Sunday 22 November — 4 matches

• 10:30 UTC Batman Petrolspor vs Muğlaspor — model 59% / 21% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.76 · 5.00. Edge: Batman Petrolspor
• 13:00 UTC Manisa F.K. vs Pendikspor — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 13:00 UTC Esenler Erokspor vs Antalyaspor — model 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 4.00 · 4.76. Edge: Esenler Erokspor
• 16:00 UTC Bursaspor vs Sivasspor — model 69% / 20% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.45 · 5.00 · 9.09. One-sided: Bursaspor

Monday 23 November — 1 match

• 17:00 UTC Bodrum FK vs Vanspor FK — model 55% / 26% / 19%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.85 · 5.26. Edge: Bodrum FK

Sunday 29 November — 10 matches

• 17:00 UTC Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50. Edge: Bodrum FK
• 17:00 UTC Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
• 17:00 UTC Boluspor vs Esenler Erokspor — model 21% / 26% / 53%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.76 · 3.85 · 1.89. One-sided: Esenler Erokspor
• 17:00 UTC Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K. — model 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.57 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 17:00 UTC Bandırmaspor vs Batman Petrolspor — model 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.70 · 3.03. Evenly matched
• 17:00 UTC Keçiörengücü vs Kayserispor — model 32% / 27% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 3.70 · 2.44. Edge: Kayserispor
• 17:00 UTC Pendikspor vs Iğdır FK — model 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.23 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 17:00 UTC Sarıyer vs İstanbulspor — model 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.57 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 17:00 UTC Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor — model 22% / 26% / 52%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.55 · 3.85 · 1.92. One-sided: Bursaspor
• 17:00 UTC Muğlaspor vs Mardin 1969 — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: Mardin 1969

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 10 matches. Across all 59 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 47% of results.

• Antalyaspor 1–1 Bursaspor — the model said 24% / 25% / 51%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Sarıyer 1–1 Iğdır FK — the model said 33% / 32% / 35%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Keçiörengücü 1–0 Manisa F.K. — the model said 57% / 22% / 21%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Vanspor FK 3–1 Sivasspor — the model said 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Muğlaspor 0–5 Esenler Erokspor — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Pendikspor 0–2 İstanbulspor — the model said 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
• Bandırmaspor 0–4 Fatih Karagümrük — the model said 42% / 32% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Boluspor 1–2 Bodrum FK — the model said 22% / 28% / 50%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Ümraniyespor 2–1 Kayserispor — the model said 25% / 28% / 47%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Mardin 1969 1–1 Batman Petrolspor — the model said 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

TFF 1. Lig so far

Top of the table

• 1. Bursaspor — 32 pts from 14 (10W 2D 2L, goals 30–12)
• 2. Kayserispor — 30 pts from 14 (9W 3D 2L, goals 33–11)
• 3. Iğdır FK — 28 pts from 14 (8W 4D 2L, goals 19–11)
• 4. Mardin 1969 — 25 pts from 14 (7W 4D 3L, goals 19–13)
• 5. Batman Petrolspor — 24 pts from 14 (7W 3D 4L, goals 27–24)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 241 matches left: Bursaspor 57.9%, Kayserispor 37.4%, Iğdır FK 1%.

Leading scorers: K. Ịheanachọ (Bursaspor) 17 goals, T. Seferi (Kayserispor) 10 goals, D. Moreno (Kayserispor) 10 goals.