Muğlaspor
vs
Mardin 1969
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Muğlaspor 0–1 Mardin 1969
The model makes it 31% Muğlaspor, 28% draw, 41% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Muğlaspor 1.17, Mardin 1969 1.45.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Mardin 1969: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Muğlaspor's rating is built from 14 TFF 1. Lig matches and Mardin 1969's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Muğlaspor are 11th on 18 points from 14 games; Mardin 1969 are 4th on 25 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Muğlaspor have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Esenler Erokspor.
- Mardin 1969 are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Batman Petrolspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Muğlaspor vs Mardin 1969
Has the model earned this number?
Mardin 1969 at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Muğlaspor vs Mardin 1969
Muğlaspor
1. Lig
- L0-5Esenler Erokspor7 November 2026
- L0-6away to Kayserispor2 November 2026
- W5-0İstanbulspor24 October 2026
- W4-3away to Manisa F.K.19 October 2026
- L0-3Bursaspor15 October 2026
Mardin 1969
1. Lig
- D1-1Batman Petrolspor8 November 2026
- W2-1away to İstanbulspor1 November 2026
- W2-1Manisa F.K.26 October 2026
- L2-4away to Esenler Erokspor19 October 2026
- W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Muğlaspor had three goals or more.
- Muğlaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mardin 1969 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mardin 1969 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Mardin 1969.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Muğlaspor | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
| 4 | Mardin 1969 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Muğlaspor and Mardin 1969
Muğlaspor
GoalsAssists
- M. Diarra41
- Y. Uzunoglu41
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- O. Kayode52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Muğlaspor a 0% chance of the title and Mardin 1969 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mardin 1969 the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Muğlaspor against 1.45 for Mardin 1969. Muğlaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.58/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.24 for Mardin 1969.
How the model reaches 41% for Mardin 1969 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mardin 1969 to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Muğlaspor's ratings add 7 points and Mardin 1969's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Muğlaspor's ratings35%+7
- Mardin 1969's ratings41%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Muğlaspor at home · Mardin 1969 away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Muğlaspor 14, Mardin 1969 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Muğlaspor
- vs Antalyaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Pendikspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 28%
- vs Keçiörengücü20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 30%
- vs Sarıyer10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 42%
Mardin 1969
- vs Sarıyer6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 52%
- at Keçiörengücü13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 28%
- vs Pendikspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 53%
- vs Ümraniyespor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.