Keçiörengücü
vs
Kayserispor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Keçiörengücü 1–2 Kayserispor
The model makes it 32% Keçiörengücü, 27% draw, 41% Kayserispor — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Keçiörengücü 1.36, Kayserispor 1.58.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Kayserispor: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Keçiörengücü's rating is built from 53 TFF 1. Lig matches and Kayserispor's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Keçiörengücü are 6th on 23 points from 14 games; Kayserispor are 2nd on 30 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Keçiörengücü have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Manisa F.K..
- Kayserispor have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Ümraniyespor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Keçiörengücü vs Kayserispor
Has the model earned this number?
Kayserispor at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Kayserispor
Keçiörengücü
1. Lig
- W1-0Manisa F.K.7 November 2026
- L2-3away to Esenler Erokspor30 October 2026
- L2-4Bursaspor25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fatih Karagümrük19 October 2026
- D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026
Kayserispor
1. Lig
- L1-2away to Ümraniyespor8 November 2026
- W6-0Muğlaspor2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Pendikspor25 October 2026
- D2-2Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026
What these results say
- Keçiörengücü scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Kayserispor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Kayserispor
- 2 December 2025Keçiörengücü 2–0 KayserisporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Kayserispor
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf82
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi102
- D. Moreno101
- F. Hasani50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Keçiörengücü a 1% chance of the title and Kayserispor 37.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kayserispor the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Keçiörengücü against 1.58 for Kayserispor. Keçiörengücü's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.16 for Kayserispor.
How the model reaches 41% for Kayserispor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kayserispor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Keçiörengücü's ratings add 5 points and Kayserispor's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Keçiörengücü's ratings34%+5
- Kayserispor's ratings41%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Keçiörengücü at home · Kayserispor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Keçiörengücü 14, Kayserispor 14.
Keçiörengücü score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Kayserispor have let in 1 there.
Kayserispor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Keçiörengücü have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Keçiörengücü
- at Batman Petrolspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Mardin 196913 Dec · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Muğlaspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 44%
- vs Antalyaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 54%
Kayserispor
- vs Bodrum FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 55%
- at Bandırmaspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 48%
- vs Boluspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 81%
- vs Vanspor FK10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 70%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.