6 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Gradski stadion Banja Luka, Banja Luka
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Borac Banja Luka 1-0 ML Vitebsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 83% Borac Banja Luka, 10% draw, 7% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 1.20, 10.00 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Borac Banja Luka at 83% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Borac Banja Luka98%Draw2%ML Vitebsk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Savicassist: D. Hrelja
14'
21'
Milad Mohammadi
33'
Milad Mohammadi
33'
Milad Mohammadi
36'
Aleksandar Mesarović
Sebastian Herrera
45+1'
54'
🔁B. Diabateout: N. Baranok
🔁M. Deketout: A. Hiros
60'
67'
🔁V. Gromykoout: S. Gnaka
67'
🔁Y. Skibskiyout: I. Moskalenchik
🔁D. Hreljaout: A. Roguljic
70'
🔁S. Savicout: D. Vukovic
78'
83'
Artem Kontsevoy
84'
🔁A. Kontsevoyout: D. Cleonise
84'
🔁R. Bosicout: V. Zhuk

Match stats — Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk

61%Possession39%
11On target2
8Corners1

Line-ups

Borac Banja Luka 4-2-1-3
  • 72M. JurkasG
  • 19V. RoganD
  • 24J. CarolinaD
  • 2B. MeijersD
  • 16S. HerreraD
  • 18M. JojicM
  • 98S. OgrinecM
  • 89M. DeketF
  • 11D. HreljaM
  • 7L. JuricicF
  • 77S. SavicM
Substitutes
  • 1D. SiskovskiG
  • 3A. PascualD
  • 6S. SanicaninD
  • 10D. VukovicM
  • 12A. HirosM
  • 14P. DjajicF
  • 22I. Kukavica
  • 23S. VranjesM
  • 30N. JaksicD
Coach: Vinko Marinovic
ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 22Y. SkibskiyM
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 6K. GomanovD
  • 5M. MohammadiD
  • 27A. MesarovicM
  • 15V. BocherovM
  • 55V. GromykoM
  • 80A. KontsevoyM
  • 9B. DiabateF
  • 12R. BosicM
Substitutes
  • 30P. ShcherbachenyaG
  • 46D. KotauG
  • 3N. BaranokD
  • 7T. IvanovF
  • 8S. GnakaM
  • 10D. CleoniseM
  • 18V. ZhukM
  • 23S. BalanovichM
  • 45I. MoskalenchikD
Coach: Mikhail Martinovich

Form going into Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk

Borac Banja Luka

  • D3-3away to Petrocub30 July 2026
  • W3-0Petrocub23 July 2026

ML Vitebsk

  • W2-1away to Sutjeska30 July 2026
  • W3-0Sutjeska23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk

  • 6 August 2026Borac Banja Luka 1–0 ML VitebskUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.