6 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Ajax vs Shelbourne UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Ajax 3-1 Shelbourne.

Before kick-off the model made it 90% Ajax, 7% draw, 3% Shelbourne — fair odds of 1.11, 14.29 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ajax at 90% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ajax99%Draw1%Shelbourne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Mika Godts
4'
⚽M. Godts (pen)
6'
⚽O. Wijndalassist: S. Berghuis
22'
47'
Evan Caffrey
⚽K. Dolbergassist: S. Berghuis
50'
⚽Mika Godts (pen)
57'
🔁D. Klaassenout: Marcos Leonardo
58'
🔁O. Gloukhout: J. Mokio
58'
🔁S. Berghuisout: O. Edvardsen
64'
🔁K. Dolbergout: J. Brandt
65'
73'
🔁S. Mooreout: R. Freitas
🔁M. Godtsout: M. Carrizo
77'
80'
🔁J. Henry-Francisout: A. Coote
80'
🔁K. McInroyout: O. Casey
84'
⚽D. Kelly
Jorthy Mokio
85'
90+3'
🔁S. Boneout: J. Roche
90+3'
🔁J. Norrisout: S. Gannon

Match stats — Ajax vs Shelbourne

71%Possession29%
32Shots3
11On target3
14Corners0

Line-ups

Ajax 4-1-4-1
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 3A. GaaeiD
  • 30A. BouwmanD
  • 17D. BlindD
  • 5O. WijndalD
  • 6Y. RegeerM
  • 23S. BerghuisM
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 10O. GloukhM
  • 11M. GodtsM
  • 9K. DolbergF
Substitutes
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 22J. HeerkensG
  • 20O. EdvardsenF
  • 99T. ArokodareF
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 15Y. BaasD
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 8J. BrandtM
  • 12Caio HenriqueD
Coach: Michel
Shelbourne 5-4-1
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 25M. MbengD
  • 15S. BoneD
  • 29P. BarrettD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 18J. NorrisD
  • 22S. MooreM
  • 21J. Henry-FrancisM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 27E. CaffreyM
  • 17D. KellyF
Substitutes
  • 13M. JohnsonG
  • 73F. MoylanG
  • 14A. CooteM
  • 6J. LunneyM
  • 44D. RingF
  • 55J. RocheD
  • 2S. GannonD
  • 11M. OdubekoF
  • 20R. FreitasF
Coach: Lorcan Fitzgerald

Form going into Ajax vs Shelbourne

Ajax

  • W4-1Vojvodina30 July 2026
  • W4-1away to Vojvodina23 July 2026

Shelbourne

  • L1-2away to Kalju Nomme30 July 2026
  • W5-2Kalju Nomme23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ajax and Shelbourne in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
4AjaxEredivisie6411197+1213
7ShelbournePremier Division30812103842-436

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eredivisie · Premier Division

Head-to-head: Ajax vs Shelbourne

  • 6 August 2026Ajax 3–1 ShelbourneUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Ajax and Shelbourne

Ajax

  • J. Brandt3 goals
  • D. Klaassen3 goals

Shelbourne

  • H. Wood7 goals5 assists
  • J. Martin6 goals2 assists
  • D. Kelly6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.