6 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Full time1 – 1

Final score: KuPS 1-1 Universitatea Craiova.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% KuPS, 26% draw, 43% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Universitatea Craiova at 43% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS4%Draw92%Universitatea Craiova4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Clinton Antwi
36'
38'
⚽S. Baiaramassist: A. Rus
59'
🔁S. Nsimbaout: A. Al Hamlawi
59'
🔁A. Cicaldauout: Teles
59'
🔁S. Baiaramout: D. Matei
🔁V. R. Gascout: S. Savolainen
60'
🔁B. Armahout: C. Kabuye
60'
🔁A. Puukkoout: P. Parzyszek
60'
68'
Adrian Rus
⚽J. J. Moreno Ciorciariassist: T. Jyry
72'
🔁J. Luyeye-Lutumbaout: A. Heinonen
73'
73'
🔁M. Etimout: Heriberto Tavares
🔁C. Antwiout: S. Heiskanen
83'
Saku Heiskanen
88'
90+5'
🔁A. Mekvabishviliout: T. Baluta

Match stats — KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova

53%Possession47%
1On target4
6Corners2

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 12H. RiihimakiG
  • 29A. Puukko
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 4K. AdamsD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. R. GascM
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 24B. ArmahD
  • 11J. J. Moreno CiorciariF
Substitutes
  • 37K. SilenG
  • 3S. HeiskanenM
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 17A. HeinonenM
  • 19C. KabuyeF
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
  • 23A. LotjonenD
  • 33T. HamalainenD
Coach: Miika Nuutinen
Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3
  • 21L. PopescuG
  • 28A. RusD
  • 24N. StevanovicD
  • 6V. ScreciuD
  • 17C. MoraM
  • 20A. CicaldauM
  • 5A. MekvabishviliM
  • 11N. BancuM
  • 12M. EtimF
  • 7S. NsimbaF
  • 10S. BaiaramF
Substitutes
  • 1A. MaximG
  • 90R. SavaG
  • 3O. RomanchukD
  • 4A. CretuM
  • 8T. BalutaM
  • 9A. Al HamlawiF
  • 18M. RadulescuM
  • 19Heriberto TavaresF
  • 22S. ElisorF
Coach: Filipe Coelho

Form going into KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova

KuPS

  • L0-2Sabah FA28 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Sabah FA21 July 2026

Universitatea Craiova

  • W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
  • D2-2Levski Sofia29 July 2026
  • L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia22 July 2026
  • W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

KuPS and Universitatea Craiova in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1KuPSVeikkausliiga2212733823+1543
3Universitatea CraiovaLiga I9522199+1017

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Veikkausliiga · Liga I

Head-to-head: KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova

  • 6 August 2026KuPS 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: KuPS and Universitatea Craiova

KuPS

  • J. Moreno5 goals
  • B. Armah3 goals
  • P. Pennanen2 goals2 assists

Universitatea Craiova

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.