20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Bournemouth vs Liverpool Premier League prediction & result

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Bournemouth, 27% draw, 36% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bournemouth at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bournemouth0%Draw5%Liverpool95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
Dominik Szoboszlai
57'
⚽Alexander Isak
58'
Alexander Isak
71'
🔁Florian Wirtzout: Treymaurice Nyoni
72'
🔁Bradley Barcolaout: Víctor Muñoz
🔁Adam Smithout: Lewis Cook
75'
🔁Ryan Christieout: Daniel Jebbison
75'
🔁Marcus Tavernierout: David Brooks
75'
81'
🔁Alexander Isakout: Lewis Koumas
81'
🔁Dominik Szoboszlaiout: Ryan Gravenberch
Antonio Silva
81'
🔁Tyler Adamsout: Ben Gannon-Doak
88'
🔁Rayan Vitor Simplício Rochaout: Alex Tóth
88'

Match stats — Bournemouth vs Liverpool

46%Possession54%
9Shots12
2On target3
3Corners3

Line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 8A. ScottM
  • 37RayanM
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 29D. JebbisonF
  • 27A. TóthM
  • 24Juanlu SánchezM
  • 11B. DoakF
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 4L. CookM
  • 18B. DiakitéD
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
Coach: M. Rose
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
  • 1Alisson BeckerG
  • 33R. AraújoD
  • 5J. JacquetD
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 6M. KerkezD
  • 8D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 10A. Mac AllisterM
  • 18C. GakpoM
  • 7F. WirtzM
  • 29B. BarcolaM
  • 9A. IsakF
Substitutes
  • 73R. NgumohaF
  • 67L. KoumasF
  • 23Víctor MuñozF
  • 42T. NyoniM
  • 38R. GravenberchM
  • 30J. FrimpongD
  • 21K. TsimikasD
  • 2J. GomezD
  • 25G. MamardashviliG
Coach: Andoni Iraola

Form going into Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Bournemouth

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
  • D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
  • D1-1Everton29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026

Liverpool

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
  • W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
  • D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Bournemouth scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Bournemouth.
  • Liverpool went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Liverpool scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Bournemouth104331614+215
4Liverpool105321410+418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Liverpool

  • 24 January 2026Bournemouth 3–2 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 15 August 2025Liverpool 4–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 1 February 2025Bournemouth 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 21 September 2024Liverpool 3–0 BournemouthPremier League
  • 21 January 2024Bournemouth 0–4 LiverpoolPremier League

The full Bournemouth vs Liverpool record →

Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Liverpool

Bournemouth

GoalsAssists

  • Evanilson54
  • M. Tavernier50

Liverpool

GoalsAssists

  • A. Isak70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Liverpool won 1–0 at Bournemouth. The model had leaned towards a win for Bournemouth at 37% and given a win for Liverpool 36%. The goal: Alexander Isak 57' for Liverpool.

How the call on Bournemouth v Liverpool has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Bournemouth's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Bournemouth win37%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Liverpool win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.