19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Tottenham vs Aston Villa Premier League prediction & result

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Tottenham, 31% draw, 33% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tottenham at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tottenham0%Draw1%Aston Villa99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Pedro Porroout: Archie Gray
19'
45+4'
⚽Johan Manzambiassist: Boubacar Kamara
Jan Paul van Hecke
45+7'
45'
🔁Aaron Wan-Bissakaout: Matty Cash
🔁Mateus Fernandesout: Mohammed Kudus
45'
46'
Nicolas Jackson
•Mohammed Kudus
60'
🔁Dominic Solankeout: James Maddison
66'
67'
⚽Nicolas Jacksonassist: Johan Manzambi
72'
🔁Johan Manzambiout: George Hemmings
79'
⚽Emiliano Buendíaassist: John McGinn
84'
🔁John McGinnout: Ross Barkley
84'
🔁Boubacar Kamaraout: Ibrahim Mbaye
🔁Rodrigo Bentancurout: Lucas Bergvall
84'
🔁Sandro Tonaliout: Conor Gallagher
84'
⚽Conor Gallagherassist: Mohammed Kudus
86'
88'
🔁Nicolas Jacksonout: Tammy Abraham
90+2'
Matty Cash
90+2'
Unai Emery Etxegoien
⚽Jan Paul van Heckeassist: Andrew Robertson
90+8'

Match stats — Tottenham vs Aston Villa

64%Possession36%
20Shots15
7On target6
11Corners1

Line-ups

Tottenham 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. KinskýG
  • 23Pedro PorroD
  • 6J. van HeckeD
  • 37M. van de VenD
  • 3A. RobertsonD
  • 30R. BentancurM
  • 16S. TonaliM
  • 17SávioM
  • 18Mateus FernandesM
  • 22Omar MarmoushM
  • 19D. SolankeF
Substitutes
  • 15L. BergvallM
  • 20M. KudusM
  • 39M. DúbravkaG
  • 4T. AdarabioyoD
  • 5M. SenesiD
  • 13D. UdogieD
  • 8C. GallagherM
  • 10J. MaddisonM
  • 14A. GrayM
Coach: R. De Zerbi
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Z. SuzukiG
  • 29A. Wan-BissakaD
  • 3V. LindelöfD
  • 5T. MingsD
  • 13M. RuggeriD
  • 8B. KamaraM
  • 35João GomesM
  • 7J. McGinnM
  • 44J. ManzambiM
  • 10E. BuendíaM
  • 11N. JacksonF
Substitutes
  • 2M. CashD
  • 4T. Harwood-BellisD
  • 6R. BarkleyM
  • 26L. BogardeM
  • 53George HemmingsM
  • 17A. GarnachoF
  • 18T. AbrahamF
  • 19I. MbayeF
  • 42J. WrightG
Coach: Unai Emery

Form going into Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Tottenham

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Everton12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
  • L0-2Newcastle29 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Brentford22 August 2026

Aston Villa

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
  • L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Tottenham did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Tottenham failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Tottenham had two goals or fewer.
  • Aston Villa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Tottenham103341011-112
10Aston Villa103431417-313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Aston Villa

  • 3 May 2026Aston Villa 1–2 TottenhamPremier League
  • 10 January 2026Tottenham 1–2 Aston VillaFA Cup
  • 19 October 2025Tottenham 1–2 Aston VillaPremier League
  • 16 May 2025Aston Villa 2–0 TottenhamPremier League
  • 9 February 2025Aston Villa 2–1 TottenhamFA Cup

The full Tottenham vs Aston Villa record →

Leading scorers: Tottenham and Aston Villa

Tottenham

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Aston Villa

GoalsAssists

  • N. Jackson61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aston Villa won 3–2 at Tottenham. The model had leaned towards a win for Tottenham at 36% and given a win for Aston Villa 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Johan Manzambi 45+4' for Aston Villa, Nicolas Jackson 67' for Aston Villa, Emiliano Buendía 79' for Aston Villa, Conor Gallagher 86' for Tottenham, Jan Paul van Hecke 90+8' for Tottenham.

How the call on Tottenham v Aston Villa has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 36% / 31% / 33%: the biggest move is Tottenham's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Tottenham win36%▼ −4
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Aston Villa win33%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.