Brentford vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brentford 3-0 Chelsea.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Brentford, 24% draw, 25% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Brentford at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brentford vs Chelsea
Line-ups
- 1C. KelleherG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 20K. AjerD
- 23K. Lewis-PotterD
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 19J. AnthonyM
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 31E. BalcombeG
- 14Fábio CarvalhoM
- 25E. DioufD
- 48B. FredrickD
- 3R. HenryD
- 2A. HickeyD
- 11D. OuattaraF
- 18M. SangaréM
- 13C. WilsonF
- 1E. MartínezG
- 3W. FofanaD
- 5M. LacroixD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 4V. BarcoM
- 29Pep ChavarríaM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 39M. PendersG
- 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 21J. HatoD
- 27M. GustoD
- 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
- 41EstêvãoF
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
Form going into Brentford vs Chelsea
Brentford
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Chelsea
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
What these results say
- Brentford went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Brentford scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chelsea scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chelsea conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Chelsea had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Chelsea
- 17 January 2026Chelsea 2–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 13 September 2025Brentford 2–2 ChelseaPremier League
- 6 April 2025Brentford 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 15 December 2024Chelsea 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 2 March 2024Brentford 2–2 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Brentford and Chelsea
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brentford beat Chelsea 3–0. The model had made a win for Brentford its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jaidon Anthony 61' for Brentford, Igor Thiago 83' for Brentford, Fabio Carvalho 90+4' for Brentford.
How the call on Brentford v Chelsea has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is Brentford's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Brentford win51%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Chelsea win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.