5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result

Stadion Wankdorf, Bern
Full time3 – 3

Final score: BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Luzern.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% BSC Young Boys, 25% draw, 25% FC Luzern — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts BSC Young Boys at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

BSC Young Boys6%Draw90%FC Luzern4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Samuel Essendeassist: Alvyn Sanches
14'
29'
Mio Zimmermann
Isaac Schmidt
32'
Edimilson Fernandes
39'
45'
🔁Nando Toggenburgerout: Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga
47'
⚽Andrejs Cigaņiksassist: Daniel Mikołajewski
49'
⚽Andrejs Cigaņiksassist: Daniel Mikołajewski
⚽Samuel Essendeassist: Alvyn Sanches
52'
🔁Alan Virginiusout: Edin Etoski
57'
🔁Edimilson Fernandesout: Dominik Pech
57'
🔁Isaac Schmidtout: stefan bukinac
57'
Samuel Essende
62'
Dominik Pech
63'
65'
⚽Matteo Di Giusto (pen)
🔁Christian Fassnachtout: Mamadou Kaly·Sene
68'
73'
Bung Hua Freimann
78'
Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga
81'
🔁Bung Hua Freimannout: Loïc Lüthi
82'
🔁Mio Zimmermannout: Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
82'
🔁Tyron Owusuout: Sandro Wyss
🔁Armin Gigovicout: Bahereba Guirassy
85'
⚽Mamadou Kaly·Seneassist: Bahereba Guirassy
88'
90'
Bung Meng Freimann
90+2'
🔁Daniel Mikołajewskiout: Lars Villiger
90+6'
Matteo Di Giusto

Match stats — BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern

54%Possession46%
28Shots17
10On target7
8Corners2

Line-ups

BSC Young Boys 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. KellerG
  • 27L. BlumD
  • 30S. LauperD
  • 23L. BenitoD
  • 22I. SchmidtD
  • 16C. FassnachtM
  • 8A. GigovićM
  • 6E. FernandesM
  • 7A. VirginiusM
  • 10A. SanchesM
  • 99S. EssendeF
Substitutes
  • 12Bahereba GuirassyF
  • 34E. EtoskiM
  • 33S. BukinacD
  • 17S. JankoD
  • 18J. MallG
  • 13D. PechM
  • 9K. SèneF
  • 52N. TschanzM
  • 54Chiagozie Silas UbakaD
Coach: G. Seoane
FC Luzern 4-4-2
  • 30K. LeticaG
  • 22R. FernandesD
  • 13B. FreimannD
  • 46B. FreimannD
  • 14A. CigaņiksD
  • 24T. OwusuM
  • 80Mio ZimmermannM
  • 6L. BertoneM
  • 11M. Di GiustoM
  • 19D. MikołajewskiF
  • 15N. ToggenburgerF
Substitutes
  • 21L. LüthiD
  • 7A. OehlersF
  • 10Lucas FerreiraM
  • 1S. SimoniG
  • 27L. VilligerF
  • 29Levin WinklerM
  • 5S. KneževićD
  • 18Bongeli Faveurdi BeengaF
  • 17Sandro WyssF
Coach: J. Portmann

Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern

BSC Young Boys

  • W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
  • D3-3FC Basel 189329 August 2026
  • W4-2FC Vaduz23 August 2026

FC Luzern

  • W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Servette FC29 August 2026
  • W1-0Lausanne22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3BSC Young Boys84402816+1216
8FC Luzern82331217-59

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern

  • 5 September 2026BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 4 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 14 December 2025BSC Young Boys 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 14 September 2025FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 15 May 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 13 April 2025FC Luzern 5–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League

Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC Luzern

BSC Young Boys

  • S. Essende8 goals3 assists
  • C. Fassnacht4 goals1 assists
  • A. Sanches3 goals4 assists

FC Luzern

  • M. Di Giusto3 goals1 assists
  • A. Cigaņiks3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.