5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result

Stadion Wankdorf, Bern
Full time3 – 3

Final score: BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Luzern.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% BSC Young Boys, 25% draw, 25% FC Luzern — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

BSC Young Boys at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

BSC Young Boys6%Draw90%FC Luzern4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Samuel Essendeassist: Alvyn Sanches
14'
29'
Mio Zimmermann
Isaac Schmidt
32'
Edimilson Fernandes
39'
45'
🔁Nando Toggenburgerout: Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga
47'
⚽Andrejs Cigaņiksassist: Daniel Mikołajewski
49'
⚽Andrejs Cigaņiksassist: Daniel Mikołajewski
⚽Samuel Essendeassist: Alvyn Sanches
52'
🔁Alan Virginiusout: Edin Etoski
57'
🔁Edimilson Fernandesout: Dominik Pech
57'
🔁Isaac Schmidtout: stefan bukinac
57'
Samuel Essende
62'
Dominik Pech
63'
65'
⚽Matteo Di Giusto (pen)
🔁Christian Fassnachtout: Mamadou Kaly·Sene
68'
73'
Bung Hua Freimann
78'
Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga
81'
🔁Bung Hua Freimannout: Loïc Lüthi
82'
🔁Mio Zimmermannout: Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
82'
🔁Tyron Owusuout: Sandro Wyss
🔁Armin Gigovicout: Bahereba Guirassy
85'
⚽Mamadou Kaly·Seneassist: Bahereba Guirassy
88'
90'
Bung Meng Freimann
90+2'
🔁Daniel Mikołajewskiout: Lars Villiger
90+6'
Matteo Di Giusto

Match stats — BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern

54%Possession46%
28Shots17
10On target7
8Corners2

Line-ups

BSC Young Boys 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. KellerG
  • 27L. BlumD
  • 30S. LauperD
  • 23L. BenitoD
  • 22I. SchmidtD
  • 16C. FassnachtM
  • 8A. GigovićM
  • 6E. FernandesM
  • 7A. VirginiusM
  • 10A. SanchesM
  • 99S. EssendeF
Substitutes
  • 12Bahereba GuirassyF
  • 34E. EtoskiM
  • 33S. BukinacD
  • 17S. JankoD
  • 18J. MallG
  • 13D. PechM
  • 9K. SèneF
  • 52N. TschanzM
  • 54Chiagozie Silas UbakaD
Coach: G. Seoane
FC Luzern 4-4-2
  • 30K. LeticaG
  • 22R. FernandesD
  • 13B. FreimannD
  • 46B. FreimannD
  • 14A. CigaņiksD
  • 24T. OwusuM
  • 80Mio ZimmermannM
  • 6L. BertoneM
  • 11M. Di GiustoM
  • 19D. MikołajewskiF
  • 15N. ToggenburgerF
Substitutes
  • 21L. LüthiD
  • 7A. OehlersF
  • 10Lucas FerreiraM
  • 1S. SimoniG
  • 27L. VilligerF
  • 29Levin WinklerM
  • 5S. KneževićD
  • 18Bongeli Faveurdi BeengaF
  • 17Sandro WyssF
Coach: J. Portmann

Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern

BSC Young Boys

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
  • D3-3FC Basel 189329 August 2026
  • W4-2FC Vaduz23 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Lausanne8 August 2026
  • W6-0away to FC Thun1 August 2026

FC Luzern

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Servette FC29 August 2026
  • W1-0Lausanne22 August 2026
  • D2-2away to FC St. Gallen9 August 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026

What these results say

  • BSC Young Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for BSC Young Boys had three goals or more.
  • FC Luzern scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Luzern conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2BSC Young Boys138414125+1628
9FC Luzern133462128-713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern

  • 4 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 14 December 2025BSC Young Boys 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 14 September 2025FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 15 May 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 13 April 2025FC Luzern 5–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League

Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC Luzern

BSC Young Boys

GoalsAssists

  • S. Essende153
  • C. Fassnacht61
  • A. Sanches44

FC Luzern

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mikołajewski43
  • M. Di Giusto43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

BSC Young Boys and FC Luzern drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for BSC Young Boys at 50% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Samuel Essende 14' for BSC Young Boys, Andrejs Cigaņiks 47' for FC Luzern, Andrejs Cigaņiks 49' for FC Luzern, Samuel Essende 52' for BSC Young Boys, Matteo Di Giusto (penalty) 65' for FC Luzern, Mamadou Kaly·Sene 88' for BSC Young Boys.

How the call on BSC Young Boys v FC Luzern has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is BSC Young Boys's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. BSC Young Boys win50%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. FC Luzern win25%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.