23 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade 15 Octobre, Bizerte
Full time3 – 1

Final score: CA Bizertin 3-1 ES Hammam-Sousse.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% CA Bizertin, 27% draw, 20% ES Hammam-Sousse — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CA Bizertin at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CA Bizertin98%Draw2%ES Hammam-Sousse0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽W. Chihi
12'
32'
⚽M. A. Jarraya
35'
O. Tenguiano
🔁M. Traoreout: A. Chaabane
46'
⚽W. Timi
47'
🔁R. Rehimiout: B. Ouni
53'
56'
🔁R. Ouniout: F. Ouji
56'
🔁T. Ben Zitounout: R. Aissaoui
64'
🔁Figoout: O. Martin
64'
🔁A. Hssineout: M. Baayou
🔁W. Timiout: Z. Berrima
67'
🔁W. Chihiout: I. Midani
67'
77'
84'
🔁I. Houliout: R. Abdallah
M. Doukali
86'
🔁O. Fatyout: O. Ayinde
88'
90'
N. El Beji
⚽A. Dridi (pen)
90+9'

Line-ups

CA Bizertin
  • 22Y. Maktouf
  • 20M. Doukali
  • 31M. A. Gasmi
  • 26H. Amamou
  • 24M. Allela
  • 27M. Traore
  • 14A. Dridi
  • 4R. Rehimi
  • 11W. Timi
  • 7W. Chihi
  • 33O. Faty
Substitutes
  • 1A. Gharbi
  • 5A. Gueblia
  • 2F. Bougatfa
  • 13B. Ouni
  • 8S. Diallo
  • 10A. Chaabane
  • 12Z. Berrima
  • 17I. Midani
  • 28O. Ayinde
ES Hammam-Sousse
  • 30M. Hazgui
  • 2N. El Beji
  • 4R. Ouni
  • 22J. Moussa
  • 29M. A. Helal
  • 6Figo
  • 34I. Houli
  • 8A. Hssine
  • 13M. Sassi
  • 11M. A. Jarraya
  • 33T. Ben Zitoun
Substitutes
  • 32C. Nasreli
  • 14R. Aissaoui
  • 21O. Tenguiano
  • 15R. B. Abdallah
  • 20M. Baayou
  • 10F. Ouji
  • 17R. Abdallah
  • 24O. Martin
  • 19A. Chaabane
Coach: Ferid Chouchane

Form going into CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse

CA Bizertin

Ligue 1

  • D0-0US Monastirienne10 October 2026
  • L0-2away to CS Sfaxien20 September 2026
  • D1-1Olympique Béja5 September 2026

ES Hammam-Sousse

Ligue 1

  • L0-2US Ben Guerdane17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to ES Zarzis11 October 2026
  • L1-3Stade Tunisien12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to ES Metlaoui6 September 2026

What these results say

  • ES Hammam-Sousse did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • ES Hammam-Sousse conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • ES Hammam-Sousse failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7CA Bizertin732287+111
16ES Hammam-Sousse7016212-101

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse

  • 27 May 2023ES Hammam-Sousse 1–0 CA BizertinLigue 1
  • 26 April 2023CA Bizertin 2–2 ES Hammam-SousseLigue 1
  • 25 January 2023ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 CA BizertinLigue 1
  • 22 October 2022CA Bizertin 2–2 ES Hammam-SousseLigue 1
  • 26 February 2022Hammam-Sousse 1–0 CA BizertinLigue 1
  • 23 October 2021CA Bizertin 0–0 Hammam-SousseLigue 1

The result against the call

CA Bizertin beat ES Hammam-Sousse 3–1. The model had made a win for CA Bizertin its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: W. Chihi 12' for CA Bizertin, M. A. Jarraya 32' for ES Hammam-Sousse, W. Timi 47' for CA Bizertin, A. Dridi (penalty) 90+9' for CA Bizertin. Sent off: N. El Beji (ES Hammam-Sousse) 90'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave CA Bizertin a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.3% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 16.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.3%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

For ES Hammam-Sousse the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 89.4% going in: 79.7% after a win, 89.9% after a draw, 92.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.7%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on CA Bizertin v ES Hammam-Sousse has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 27% / 20%: the biggest move is CA Bizertin's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. CA Bizertin win53%▲ +7
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. ES Hammam-Sousse win20%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.