23 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif Ligue 1 prediction & result

Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium, La Marsa
Full time1 – 1

Final score: AS Marsa 1-1 CS Hammam-Lif.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% AS Marsa, 29% draw, 24% CS Hammam-Lif — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AS Marsa at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Marsa4%Draw93%CS Hammam-Lif3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁N. Maniout: Y. Dao
21'
M. Traidi
40'
43'
A. S. Berete
⚽M. Hamrouni
45+4'
46'
🔁R. Kamergiout: M. Mejri
60'
⚽H. Ghrairi (pen)
🔁F. Iffiaout: O. Adejoh
64'
🔁M. Traidiout: A. Ben Hamida
64'
69'
🔁M. Ben Tibaout: Y. Chamakhi
69'
🔁H. Mhamdiout: O. Meskini
70'
I. Dridi
🔁A. Gasmiout: R. Gneba
84'
🔁K. Khalfaout: A. Wadud
84'
A. Wadud
86'
90+8'

Line-ups

AS Marsa
  • 16H. Ben Cherifia
  • 5O. Bahri
  • 17O. Jebali
  • 34M. Kechiche
  • 6K. Khalfa
  • 8A. Gasmi
  • 13M. Traidi
  • 2M. Chaouch
  • 7F. Iffia
  • 10M. Hamrouni
  • 18N. Mani
Substitutes
  • 1M. Ben Braiek
  • 20F. Meskini
  • 4A. Wadud
  • 21O. Adejoh
  • 28A. Ben Hamida
  • 9O. Mejri
  • 12Y. Boukhris
  • 15R. Gneba
  • 25Y. Dao
Coach: Imed Ben Younes
CS Hammam-Lif
  • 40M. Ben Cherifia
  • 5A. Koudhai
  • 12H. Mhamdi
  • 15C. Fradj
  • 20H. Ghrairi
  • 26B. Sellami
  • 6N. Sangare
  • 29I. Dridi
  • 38A. S. Berete
  • 7M. Ben Tiba
  • 19R. Kamergi
Substitutes
  • 1I. Ben Mansour
  • 2A. Abassi
  • 23F. Ben Ammar
  • 8O. Meskini
  • 13A. Boukeba
  • 18T. Laabidi
  • 9M. Mejri
  • 33M. A. Yaakoubi
  • 17Y. Chamakhi
Coach: Chamseddine Dhaouadi

Form going into AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif

AS Marsa

Ligue 1

  • W3-0ES Metlaoui18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane11 October 2026
  • W1-0ES Sahel12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to ES Tunis6 September 2026

CS Hammam-Lif

Ligue 1

  • D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to ES Sahel11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to US Ben Guerdane20 September 2026
  • L0-1ES Tunis13 September 2026

What these results say

  • AS Marsa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AS Marsa kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for CS Hammam-Lif had two goals or fewer.
  • CS Hammam-Lif failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CS Hammam-Lif conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11AS Marsa613254+16
14CS Hammam-Lif712436-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif

  • 15 February 2025AS Marsa 1–1 CS Hammam-LifLigue 2
  • 27 October 2024CS Hammam-Lif 0–0 AS MarsaLigue 2

The result against the call

AS Marsa and CS Hammam-Lif drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Marsa at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Hamrouni 45+4' for AS Marsa, H. Ghrairi (penalty) 60' for CS Hammam-Lif. Sent off: (AS Marsa) 90+8'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AS Marsa a 6.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.9% after a win, 7.6% after a draw, 11.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.6%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

For CS Hammam-Lif the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.1% going in: 15.2% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 35.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.0%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.