Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-3 Al-Hilal.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 25% draw, 40% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Hilal at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 8N. NándezD
- 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 33J. QuiñonesF
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 35A. Al SiyahiM
- 27E. HoussaM
- 42Abdulaziz Tariq Al QarawiD
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
- 7Turki Al AmmarM
- 37Y. BounouG
- 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
- 87Hassan TambaktiD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 19T. HernándezD
- 22S. Milinković-SavićM
- 6Nasser Al DawsariM
- 8Rúben NevesM
- 7Gabriel MartinelliF
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 38C. SummervilleF
- 72S. DahalF
- 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
- 18Murad Al HawsawiM
- 24Moteb Al HarbiD
- 77Nawaf Al HabashiM
- 29Salem Al DawsariM
- 28Mohamed KannoM
- 78Ali LajamiD
- 27Sultan MandashF
Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League
- W1-0away to Al Taawon20 October 2026
- W2-1Abha16 October 2026
- W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026
Al-Hilal
Pro League
- W1-0Al-Hazm19 October 2026
- W3-2Al-Ittihad10 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 28 |
| 1 | Al-Hilal | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal
- 29 January 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–2 Al-HilalPro League
- 13 September 2025Al-Hilal 2–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 26 May 2025Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 27 January 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Al-HilalPro League
- 20 March 2021Al-Hilal 1–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 21 December 2020Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–3 Al-HilalPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders83
- M. Retegui72
- J. Quiñones65
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Martinelli60
- O. Watkins55
- Rúben Neves53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Hilal won 3–2 at Al-Qadisiyah FC. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gabriel Martinelli 21' for Al-Hilal, Julián Quiñones 31' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Rúben Neves 77' for Al-Hilal, Sergej Milinković-Savić 84' for Al-Hilal, Mateo Retegui 87' for Al-Qadisiyah FC. On expected goals it finished 0.72–2.86.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Qadisiyah FC a 20.5% chance to win the league: 28.3% after a win, 20.0% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.
For Al-Hilal the question was the chance to win the league: 62.5% after a win, 50.6% after a draw, 43.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 62.5%.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 32% / 24% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 25% / 40%: the biggest move is Al-Hilal's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win35%▲ +3
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Al-Hilal win40%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.