23 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien Ligue 1 prediction & result

7 March Stadium, Ben Guerdane
Full time1 – 0

Final score: US Ben Guerdane 1-0 Stade Tunisien.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% US Ben Guerdane, 26% draw, 30% Stade Tunisien — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

US Ben Guerdane at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

US Ben Guerdane96%Draw4%Stade Tunisien0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Abcha
5'
🔁P. Agbanouout: A. Diakite
46'
🔁N. Chachiaout: I. Touis
46'
52'
I. Touis
54'
🔁D. Obohout: H. Aboubacar
56'
60'
🔁M. Khemissiout: B. Hmidi
60'
🔁M. Thiouneout: Y. Toure
65'
A. Saihi
🔁A. Ben Mcharekout: M. H. Yeken
68'
🔁G. Ayadiout: W. Salhi
68'
⚽A. Diakite
73'
81'
🔁S. Sghaierout: Y. Dhaflaoui
A. Amri
86'

Line-ups

US Ben Guerdane
  • 31L. Hammami
  • 4P. Agbanou
  • 25S. Harrabi
  • 20J. Abcha
  • 30D. Oboh
  • 8M. Camara
  • 7A. M'Ghezzi Bakhouche
  • 10A. Ben Mcharek
  • 29G. Ayadi
  • 32N. Chachia
  • 17A. Amri
Substitutes
  • 40M. Ifaoui
  • 15I. Touis
  • 14M. H. Yeken
  • 12F. Timoumi
  • 26H. Aboubacar
  • 28Y. Ben Abdallah
  • 27W. Salhi
  • 21F. Tayechi
  • 9A. Diakite
Coach: Sofiene Hidoussi
Stade Tunisien
  • 22N. Farhati
  • 24R. Derbali
  • 25S. Sghaier
  • 3A. Saihi
  • 7W. Ouerghemmi
  • 12Y. Oumarou
  • 8Y. Saafi
  • 34M. Thioune
  • 18M. Khemissi
  • 11F. Ben Youssef
  • 9A. N'Diaye
Substitutes
  • 16A. Dkhili
  • 5M. Jelassi
  • 19F. Abdi
  • 6P. Diop
  • 20B. Hmidi
  • 21Y. Toure
  • 29Y. Dhaflaoui
  • 30B. Vigninou
  • 17R. Riahi
Coach: Toze Marreco

Form going into US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien

US Ben Guerdane

Ligue 1

  • W2-0away to ES Hammam-Sousse17 October 2026
  • W2-1Club Africain10 October 2026
  • W1-0CS Hammam-Lif20 September 2026
  • D1-1CS Sfaxien16 September 2026

Stade Tunisien

Ligue 1

  • W2-1away to ES Metlaoui11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026

What these results say

  • US Ben Guerdane went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • US Ben Guerdane scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • US Ben Guerdane won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1US Ben Guerdane7520126+617
3Stade Tunisien7412107+313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien

  • 8 May 2026Stade Tunisien 0–0 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
  • 9 November 2025US Ben Guerdane 1–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
  • 27 February 2025Stade Tunisien 1–0 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
  • 2 November 2024US Ben Guerdane 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
  • 12 November 2023Stade Tunisien 2–1 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
  • 3 September 2023US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Stade TunisienLigue 1

The result against the call

US Ben Guerdane beat Stade Tunisien 1–0. The model had made a win for US Ben Guerdane its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: A. Diakite 73' for US Ben Guerdane.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave US Ben Guerdane a 35.6% chance to finish in the top two: 46.2% after a win, 29.0% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.2%, 10.6 points higher than before the match.

For Stade Tunisien the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 16.2% going in: 27.2% after a win, 14.4% after a draw, 9.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is US Ben Guerdane's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. US Ben Guerdane win44%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Stade Tunisien win30%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.