Cesena vs Mantova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Cesena 1-1 Mantova.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Cesena, 29% draw, 31% Mantova — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cesena at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cesena vs Mantova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SianoG
- 15A. CiofiD
- 6M. IlicD
- 4J. GelliD
- 3A. DavidD
- 25D. BisoliM
- 10R. PaganoM
- 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
- 14X. DruiventakF
- 9C. ShpendiF
- 80A. FioriF
- 13L. FerrettiG
- 90T. MazziG
- 24M. MangravitiD
- 7G. FrabottaD
- 2M. NattaD
- 23V. MagniD
- 32E. BohinenM
- 5L. SchironeM
- 18M. GuidiM
- 22F. BardiG
- 5B. TomasevicD
- 29S. CellaD
- 27A. CastelliniD
- 41J. SilvaM
- 25L. IgnacchitiM
- 80R. KoudaM
- 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
- 8R. IlieF
- 19F. RuoccoF
- 99V. VlahovicF
- 1L. GemelloG
- 75E. KospoD
- 58T. Del LungoD
- 6J. LongondaM
- 10D. WieserM
- 20F. PaolettiM
- 18S. KeitaM
- 71F. ChinettiF
- 11I. CajazzoM
Form going into Cesena vs Mantova
Cesena
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026
- D1-1Sampdoria23 August 2026
Mantova
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cesena | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cesena vs Mantova
- 17 March 2026Mantova 3–0 CesenaSerie B
- 13 December 2025Cesena 3–2 MantovaSerie B
- 2 August 2025Mantova 1–2 CesenaFriendlies Clubs
- 1 May 2025Mantova 3–0 CesenaSerie B
- 29 September 2024Cesena 4–2 MantovaSerie B
- 5 May 2024Mantova 1–2 CesenaSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
Leading scorers: Cesena and Mantova
Cesena
GoalsAssists
- C. Shpendi81
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cesena and Mantova drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cesena at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Ruocco 31' for Mantova, C. Shpendi 77' for Cesena. On expected goals it finished 1.68–0.69.