6 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result

Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Mlada Boleslav 4-0 Baník Ostrava.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Mlada Boleslav, 28% draw, 28% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mlada Boleslav at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mlada Boleslav99%Draw1%Baník Ostrava0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Martin Šubertassist: Solomon John
10'
⚽Martin Šubert
20'
Matej Hybs
23'
28'
Jiri Boula
Jiří Klíma
31'
45'
🔁Jiri Boulaout: Aboubacar Traore
45'
🔁David Plankaout: Dantaye·Gilbert
🔁David Pechout: dominik mares
45'
⚽Solomon Johnassist: Denis Donat
52'
🔁dominik maresout: Matej Zachoval
54'
61'
🔁Filip Kubalaout: Artur Musak
61'
🔁Daniel Holzerout: Maksym·Diachuk
63'
Maksym·Diachuk
68'
Jiri Micek
70'
🔁Vaclav Jureckaout: Matus Kmet
🔁Martin Šubertout: Filip Matousek
71'
🔁Jiří Klímaout: Josef Kolarik
71'
🔁Solomon Johnout: Lukas Letenay
81'
82'
Yevgeniy Skyba
⚽Josef Kolarikassist: Daniel Langhamer
83'

Match stats — Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava

60%Possession40%
14Shots23
9On target5
1Corners8

Line-ups

Mlada Boleslav 4-1-4-1
  • 59J. FloderG
  • 13D. DonatD
  • 44O. KarafiatD
  • 3M. KralikD
  • 11M. HybsD
  • 77D. PechM
  • 20S. JohnM
  • 76J. Zika
  • 28D. LanghamerM
  • 21M. Subert
  • 23J. KlimaF
Substitutes
  • 47M. ObdrzalekG
  • 42V. VorelG
  • 32F. MatousekD
  • 26M. ZachovalD
  • 24D. MaresD
  • 38F. KolarD
  • 49J. KolarikM
  • 9L. LetenayF
  • 70J. BuryanF
Coach: Ales Majer
Baník Ostrava 3-1-4-2
  • 23M. JedlickaG
  • 44Y. Skyba
  • 83R. NoghaD
  • 42J. MicekD
  • 5J. BoulaM
  • 34A. BeweneM
  • 18D. PlankaM
  • 28F. KubalaM
  • 95D. HolzerM
  • 22V. SkrkonF
  • 15V. JureckaF
Substitutes
  • 1V. BudinskyG
  • 17M. FrydrychD
  • 37M. ChalusD
  • 16M. DyachukD
  • 81M. KmetD
  • 55A. MusakM
  • 7D. GilbertM
  • 19F. SanclM
  • 8A. TraoreM
Coach: Roman Skuhravy

Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava

Mlada Boleslav

  • W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
  • W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026

Baník Ostrava

  • W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
  • W1-0Artis16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Mlada Boleslav7421159+614
12Baník Ostrava8305515-109

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava

  • 6 September 2026Mlada Boleslav 4–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 2 May 2026Baník Ostrava 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 22 February 2026Baník Ostrava 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 21 September 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 9 March 2025Baník Ostrava 2–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 6 October 2024Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava

Mlada Boleslav

  • M. Šubert5 goals1 assists
  • S. John3 goals3 assists

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.