6 September 2026, 10:15 UTC

Groningen vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result

Euroborg, Groningen
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Groningen 2-2 Twente.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Groningen, 30% draw, 36% Twente — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Twente at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Groningen3%Draw93%Twente4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Marko Pjacaassist: Wout Weghorst
8'
Ramiz Zerrouki
⚽Thom Van Bergenassist: David van der Werff
18'
⚽Tygo Landassist: Thijmen Blokzijl
29'
40'
⚽Wout Weghorstassist: Younes Taha El Idrissi
Mark Csinger
55'
🔁Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonout: Oskar Zawada
60'
🔁Mark Csingerout: Elvis van der Laan
60'
🔁Pelle Clementout: Jacob Ondrejka
60'
61'
🔁Marko Pjacaout: Daan Rots
75'
🔁Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeterout: Filip Erik Thorvaldsen
75'
🔁Daouda Weidmannout: Thomas Van den Belt
🔁Tygo Landout: Travis Hernes
80'
🔁Wouter Prinsout: Nikolas Brandis
83'
88'
🔁Younes Taha El Idrissiout: Lucas hesselink of vennegoor

Match stats — Groningen vs Twente

46%Possession54%
21Shots16
4On target5
8Corners2

Line-ups

Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 14J. SchreudersD
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 2Wouter PrinsD
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 18T. LandM
  • 17D. van der WerffM
  • 26T. van BergenM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 9B. WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 12M. BrandisD
  • 19O. ZawadaF
  • 44Besnik MashukuM
  • 20Nils EggensF
  • 7T. HernesM
  • 11J. OndrejkaF
  • 13L. ŠtubljarG
  • 15E. van der LaanD
  • 30P. BoevinkG
Coach: D. Lukkien
Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. UnnerstallG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 38M. BrunsD
  • 3R. PröpperD
  • 4R. NijstadD
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 8D. WeidmannM
  • 27S. ØrjasæterM
  • 10Y. TahaM
  • 7M. PjacaM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
  • 20T. van den BeltM
  • 37N. ÜnüvarF
  • 17F. ThorvaldsenF
  • 11D. RotsF
  • 2M. RosiakD
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 16J. DrommelG
Coach: J. van den Brom

Form going into Groningen vs Twente

Groningen

  • L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
  • L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
  • W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026

Twente

  • W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
  • W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Groningen62221213-18
5Twente6411125+713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Groningen vs Twente

  • 6 September 2026Groningen 2–2 TwenteEredivisie
  • 22 February 2026Twente 2–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 2 November 2025Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
  • 1 March 2025Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
  • 15 December 2024Twente 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
  • 5 February 2023Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie

Leading scorers: Groningen and Twente

Groningen

  • B. Willumsson4 goals
  • T. van Bergen3 goals2 assists

Twente

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.