Groningen vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Groningen 2-2 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Groningen, 30% draw, 36% Twente — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Groningen vs Twente
Line-ups
- 1E. VaessenG
- 14J. SchreudersD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 18T. LandM
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 24P. ClementM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 12M. BrandisD
- 19O. ZawadaF
- 44Besnik MashukuM
- 20Nils EggensF
- 7T. HernesM
- 11J. OndrejkaF
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 15E. van der LaanD
- 30P. BoevinkG
- 1L. UnnerstallG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 38M. BrunsD
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 27S. ØrjasæterM
- 10Y. TahaM
- 7M. PjacaM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 37N. ÜnüvarF
- 17F. ThorvaldsenF
- 11D. RotsF
- 2M. RosiakD
- 22R. PasveerG
- 16J. DrommelG
Form going into Groningen vs Twente
Groningen
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
- L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
- W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026
- W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026
Twente
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
- W4-1away to Qarabag27 August 2026
- L0-1Qarabag20 August 2026
- W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026
- D3-3away to Dunajska Streda13 August 2026
What these results say
- Groningen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Groningen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
- Twente conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Twente had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Twente
- 22 February 2026Twente 2–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 2 November 2025Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 1 March 2025Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 15 December 2024Twente 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 5 February 2023Groningen 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Twente
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Groningen and Twente drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Twente at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Marko Pjaca 6' for Twente, Thom Van Bergen 18' for Groningen, Tygo Land 29' for Groningen, Wout Weghorst 40' for Twente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.